沥青（BU）：原油受多重原因影响下挫，沥青跟跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for asphalt in October is "oscillating weakly" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices declined due to multiple factors, causing asphalt prices to follow suit. In October, asphalt supply increased, but demand decreased in the north due to the rainy season, resulting in a lackluster peak season. The overall trend of asphalt will continue to fluctuate with crude oil [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply (Neutral): Two information companies estimated October's local refinery asphalt production at 1.604 million tons and 1.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and 9% respectively. Although some refineries plan to maintain full - load production or resume production, others' maintenance or intermittent production limits the increase [3]. - Demand (Negative): Affected by factors such as logistics restrictions during the National Day holiday and early - October rainfall, domestic asphalt demand is likely to decline. However, there are still construction rush expectations in some areas [3]. - Inventory (Neutral): Domestic asphalt inventory shows a trend of "slightly increasing factory inventory and slightly decreasing social inventory". Low - inventory regions have stronger price support, while high - inventory regions are weaker [3]. - Cost (Neutral): This week, crude oil prices fluctuated, first rebounding and then falling. The initial rebound was due to OPEC +'s production increase plan being lower than expected and geopolitical risks, while the subsequent decline was due to the easing of the Middle East situation, concerns about demand, and weak global economic recovery [3]. - Investment View: Oscillating weakly. The overall trend will continue to follow crude oil [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: oscillating weakly; Arbitrage: none [3]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (East China, South China, North China, Shandong) from 2021 to 2025 [5][6][9]. 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - Spread: The report shows the historical data of asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC * 6.35)) and asphalt - coking material spread from 2021 to 2025 [14][15][16]. - Basis: It presents the basis data of asphalt in major regions (South China, East China, Shandong) from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 Supply - Production Forecast: It shows the monthly production and production forecast of asphalt in China from 2022 to 2025 [22][26]. - Capacity Utilization: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2019 to 2025 [31][34][36]. - Maintenance Loss: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [38]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - Production Gross Margin: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [41][42]. - Diluted Asphalt: It presents the price, premium, and port inventory data of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [44][45][46]. 3.6 Inventory - Factory Inventory: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2019 to 2025 [50][52][53]. - Social Inventory: It shows the social inventory of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [55][56]. 3.7 Demand - Shipment Volume: It shows the shipment volume of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [59]. - Downstream Operating Rate: It shows the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 [61][62][63]. - Modified Asphalt Operating Rate: It shows the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [67][68].