国证国际港股晨报-20251013

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a significant escalation in the US-China trade war, with the US planning to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, which would raise the total tariff rate to approximately 130% [2][4] - Following the announcement, US stock markets experienced their most severe sell-off since April, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.9%, the S&P 500 down 2.72%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunging 3.56% [2] - The report notes that the volatility index (VIX) surged by 32%, indicating a shift towards risk-off sentiment among investors, with safe-haven assets like gold and US 10-year Treasury yields performing well [2] Group 2: Company Analysis - Jingneng Clean Energy (579.HK) - Jingneng Clean Energy is identified as a leading gas-fired power generation company in Beijing, holding and operating eight gas-fired power plants with a total installed capacity of 4,702 MW [7] - The company is expected to see significant growth in its renewable energy segment, with projected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 27.9% for wind power and 9.4% for solar power from 2020 to 2024 [6] - The report anticipates that by 2024, wind and solar power will contribute 48% and 28% respectively to the company's operating profit, driven by a robust pipeline of over 12 GW of projects [6][8] Group 3: Industry Insights - The renewable energy sector in China is rapidly advancing, with electricity consumption growth rates projected at 6.7% for 2023 and 6.8% for 2024, and a forecast of 5%-6% for 2025 [8] - The report indicates that renewable energy generation capacity has surpassed that of thermal power, with wind and solar accounting for approximately 20% of total electricity generation [8] - The Chinese government is promoting the marketization of renewable energy projects, ensuring stable returns for existing projects while introducing competitive mechanisms for new investments [8] Group 4: Financial Projections - The report initiates coverage on Jingneng Clean Energy with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 3.20, based on projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.42, 0.46, and 0.50 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9] - The company is expected to distribute dividends amounting to 42%, 44%, and 46% of distributable profits for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [9] - The current stock price reflects a low valuation compared to peers, with a forecasted price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 5.6 for 2025 and a dividend yield of 7.6% [9]