Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-13 06:32Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the hydropower sector, recommending attention to large hydropower companies due to improved fundamentals [2][5][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the autumn floods have positively impacted hydropower generation, with significant increases in water inflow expected to continue [2][5]. - It notes the government's efforts to regulate irrational price competition in the electricity market, which is anticipated to alleviate non-competitive pricing behaviors [6][7]. - The report discusses the fluctuations in global natural gas prices, with U.S. prices remaining low while European prices have rebounded due to geopolitical tensions and increased heating demand [11][19]. Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - The report indicates that the hydropower generation for the first three quarters of 2025 was approximately 235.13 billion kWh, remaining stable compared to the previous year, although Q3 saw a decrease of 5.84% [2][5]. - The government has issued a notice to combat price disorder in the electricity market, promoting fair competition and price stability [6][7]. - Recommendations include focusing on large hydropower companies like Guotou Power and Chuan Investment Energy, as well as green energy firms due to stable returns from existing projects [10]. Natural Gas Sector - As of October 10, 2025, the Henry Hub spot price was $2.90/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decrease of 9.03%, while European gas prices have seen an increase due to rising demand and geopolitical concerns [11][19]. - The report notes that LNG prices in Northeast Asia have risen to $11.00/mmBtu, influenced by European price trends [26]. - It suggests that the city gas companies are expected to benefit from lower costs and improved profitability due to recent price adjustments [32]. Environmental Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of high-dividend stocks in the environmental sector, recommending companies like Zhongshan Public Utilities and Everbright Environment for their stable performance [10]. - It also highlights the ongoing transition towards cleaner energy sources and the potential for increased returns from environmental value releases [10].