长江期货贵金属周报：避险情绪升温，价格走势分化-20251013

Report Overview - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report - Report Date: October 13, 2025 - Report Institution: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the delayed release of non - farm payroll data, lower - than - expected ADP employment data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up risk - aversion sentiment, and the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, precious metal prices continued to rise. The London silver spot market was tight. - There are differences in the market's expectations for the extent of interest rate cuts this year, and the expected end - point of this round of interest rate cuts has been lowered compared to the previous period. The US PPI data for August was lower than expected, and the dot - plot of the interest rate meeting showed that there will be two more interest rate cuts. - The impact of Trump on the independence of the Federal Reserve is apparent, and the US employment situation is slowing down. Powell said that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is unlikely to be persistent. - With the US economic data trending weaker, the market is concerned about the US fiscal situation and the independence of the Fed. Supported by interest rate cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, precious metal prices are expected to remain supported. It is recommended to pay attention to the US non - farm payroll employment data for September released this week [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Gold: The price of US gold continued its strong trend. As of last Friday, it closed at $4036 per ounce, up 3.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4100, and the lower support level is $3960 [6]. - Silver: The price of US silver continued to rise. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 1%, closing at $47.5 per ounce. The lower support level is $46.5, and the upper resistance level is $52 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - Due to multiple factors such as delayed non - farm data and government shutdown risks, precious metal prices are expected to be supported. It is necessary to pay attention to the US non - farm payroll employment data for September [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators No specific analysis content is provided in the text, only some data charts are presented, including real interest rates, the US dollar index, yield spreads, the Fed's balance sheet size, and the gold - silver ratio. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - Eurozone retail sales month - on - month rate in August was 0.1%, in line with expectations and an improvement from the previous - month's - 0.5%. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in October was 55, higher than the expected 54.2 but slightly lower than the previous value of 55.1 [24]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - On October 10, 2025, former US President Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, and implement key software export controls, causing a significant shock in the global financial markets. - In the London market, the silver lease rate soared to 34.98% on October 9, reaching a record high. There may be a run - on risk for overseas silver ingot inventories, and it has become extremely difficult for traders in Singapore to borrow silver from banks. The silver ingot price shows a pattern of being stronger overseas and weaker domestically, and it is necessary to closely monitor the opening of the general trade export window and the export trend of silver ingots [25]. 3.6 Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 5,294.21 kg to 1,242,294.62 kg this week, and SHFE inventory remained unchanged from last week at 70,728 kg. - Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 292,673.17 kg to 16,250,452.72 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 23,221 kg to 1,169,061 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - Gold: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds in gold this week was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week. - Silver: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds in silver this week was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Tuesday, October 14, at 20:30, the seasonally - adjusted change in non - farm payroll employment in the US for September and the US unemployment rate for September will be released. - On Thursday, October 16, at 20:30, the US PPI annual rate for September and the US retail sales month - on - month rate for September will be released [34].