航运衍生品数据日报-20251013

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The shipping industry is facing a transition between the off - season and peak season, with airlines' price increases likely to be difficult to implement. The market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and rising bargaining power of shippers" before the new long - term cooperation period in 2026. The 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended. [7][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Shipping Derivatives Data Freight Rate Index - Current Values: Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1160, China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1015, SCFI - US West is 1468, SCFIS - US West is 876, SCFI - US East is 2452, SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1068. - Percentage Changes: SCFI increased by 4.12%, CCFI decreased by 6.68%, SCFI - US West increased by 0.55%, SCFIS - US West decreased by 4.89%, SCFI - US East increased by 2.81%, SCFI - Northwest Europe increased by 9.99%. [5] Contract Data - Current Values: EC2506 is 1248.6, EC2608 is 1393.6, EC2510 is 1121.1, EC2512 is 1571.0, EC5602 is 1338.0, EC2604 is 1069.0. - Percentage Changes: EC2506 decreased by 2.26%, EC2608 decreased by 3.13%, EC2510 increased by 0.11%, EC2512 decreased by 6.93%, EC5602 decreased by 4.84%, EC2604 decreased by 4.55%. [5] Position Data - Current Values: EC2606 position is 1516, EC2608 position is 1041, EC2410 position is 18352, EC2412 position is 28056, EC2602 position is 9768, EC2604 position is 12963. - Change Values: EC2606 increased by 146, EC2608 increased by 133, EC2410 decreased by 2678, EC2412 increased by 3834, EC2602 increased by 1025, EC2604 increased by 1876. [5] Month - Spread Data - Current Values: The 10 - 12 month - spread is - 449.9, the 12 - 2 month - spread is 233.0, the 12 - 4 month - spread is 502.0. - Change Values: The 10 - 12 month - spread increased by 118.2, the 12 - 2 month - spread decreased by 49.0, the 12 - 4 month - spread decreased by 66.1. [5] 2. Spot Price - In October, the prices of GEMINI dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC reported 1600 in early October. The overall mainstream quotation range for the second half of October is 2000 - 2200. [7] 3. Logic - In late September, shipping companies collectively cut prices to grab cargoes, and freight rates once dropped to $1300/FEU. Maersk first announced a price increase of $400/FEU for the second half of October, but in October, both supply and demand decreased, and it is likely to return to the off - season market. The negotiation on the Gaza issue has created a theoretical possibility for the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea, but the shipping industry still faces "three hurdles". [8] 4. Strategy - A 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended. [9]