新能源产业链月度策略：New Energy Industry Chain Daily Report-20251013

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Carbonate Lithium: Current lithium salt supply and demand are strong. After the holiday, as the downstream restocking pace slows, there is a risk of lithium salt price decline. The follow - up arrangements of Yichun lithium mica mines are yet to be clarified, and international macro factors may disrupt the market. The support for the main contract is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure is 78,000 - 80,000 [4][5]. - Industrial Silicon: The short - term supply and demand performance is acceptable, but there is uncertainty in the future. In November, the southwest will enter the dry season, and production cuts may be planned in October, while Xinjiang's large factories have production increase expectations. The total output in October is expected to increase. The traditional peak season demand is okay, but there is great uncertainty due to the "production limit and sales control" plan. The inventory depletion speed slows down. The cost support is stable, and the market should focus on the implementation of polysilicon production - cut measures. The market may fluctuate within a range, with support at 8,200 - 8,300 and pressure at 9,200 - 9,300 [6]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are weak. Although there are rumors of production cuts, enterprises have not taken action, and the production schedule in October is expected to rise. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Policy expectations may still ferment, and the market may fluctuate at a high level in the short term. There is a large callback pressure, and investors can consider short - selling on rebounds. The support is 47,000 - 48,000, and the pressure is 52,000 - 53,000 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spot Prices 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - Carbonate Lithium 11: After the holiday, the restocking market fades. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. Upstream enterprises should seize the opportunity to sell and hedge on price increases, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - level stockpiling or buying hedges [14]. - Industrial Silicon 11: With strong expectations and weak reality, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. Use a range - trading strategy [14]. - Polysilicon 11: With strong expectations and weak reality, there is a large callback pressure. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. - Arbitrage Recommendation: There are no good arbitrage opportunities recently [14]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 72,740 | - 0.82% | 294,783 | 221,919 | - 7,103 | 42,669 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,685 | 0.52% | 225,514 | 167,035 | - 9,528 | 50,281 | | Polysilicon | 48,965 | - 2.43% | 203,722 | 91,009 | 6,022 | 8,140 | [14] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: During the holiday week, the production of carbonate lithium was 20,635 tons, an increase of 119 tons from the previous week, hitting a new weekly production high. The total sample inventory was 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons in the past two weeks, but the high - inventory situation remains. The apparent weekly demand was 21,647 tons, remaining at a recent high, and the available days of inventory in the full - caliber sample remained at a recent low [4]. - Downstream Situation: The report does not provide specific downstream situation data, but only shows relevant charts such as the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate, the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate devices, etc. [24] 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: In November, the southwest will enter the dry season, and production cuts may be planned in October, while Xinjiang's large factories have production increase expectations. The total output in October is expected to increase. The inventory depletion speed slows down, and warehouse receipts are registered [6]. - Downstream Situation: The traditional peak season demand is okay, with an increase in the production schedule of the polysilicon segment in October. However, considering the "production limit and sales control" plan, demand is uncertain. The report also shows relevant charts such as the monthly production of Chinese organic silicon DMC and the aluminum alloy operating rate [6][34] 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: Although there are rumors of production cuts, enterprises have not taken action, and the production schedule in October is expected to rise. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [8]. - Downstream Situation: The report shows relevant charts such as the monthly production of silicon wafers and the monthly production of Chinese photovoltaic components [38]