铜周报：宏观扰动再起，铜价高位回调-20251013

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Macroeconomic Disturbances Resurface, Copper Prices Correct from Highs [1] Report Date - October 13, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia halted production due to a mudslide accident, and Freeport expects copper production and sales in Q4 2025 to decline significantly. The long - term supply - demand outlook for copper remains optimistic, and the supply tightening will keep the copper market in a tight balance. The impact of the Grasberg shutdown on copper supply - demand and prices may be long - term, and the long - term price center will continue to rise. However, the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions has led to a sharp decline in copper prices. In the domestic market, high copper prices have weakened consumption, but the low inventory provides strong support for copper prices. Copper prices may stabilize after a short - term adjustment and maintain high - level volatility in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to reduce long positions to avoid short - term risks [5][7] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies - Supply Side: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia stopped production due to a mudslide. In September, the domestic southern crude copper processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the imported CIF crude copper processing fee was 85 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/ton. As of October 10, the spot smelting fee for copper concentrate was - 40.70 dollars/ton, remaining at a historical low. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 50.9 tons, a 6.04% increase. In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a 11.62% year - on - year increase but a 4.31% month - on - month decrease due to smelter overhauls and anode plate supply shortages [5] - Demand Side: The recovery of downstream consumption during the peak season was limited, and high copper prices suppressed demand. As of October 9, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 43.44%, a 30.34 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 16.99 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [5] - Inventory: Domestic copper inventory increased slightly after the holiday. As of October 10, SHFE copper inventory was 10.97 tons, a 15.42% week - on - week increase. As of October 9, domestic social copper inventory was 166,300 tons, a 12.14% week - on - week increase. LME copper inventory was 139,400 tons, a 0.77% week - on - week decrease, and COMEX copper inventory was 33,950 short tons, a 3.81% week - on - week increase [6] - Strategy Recommendation: Due to the Grasberg mine shutdown, copper prices initially rose sharply but then dropped significantly due to Sino - US trade tensions. Long - term supply - demand is optimistic, but short - term risks exist. It is recommended to reduce long positions to avoid short - term risks [7] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News - Macroeconomic Data Overview: New policy - based financial instruments total 500 billion yuan; China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8; the PBOC increased its gold holdings by 40,000 ounces in September; the US government "shut down" on October 1, affecting economic data release; US September ADP employment decreased by 32,000; US September ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the seventh consecutive month [15] - Industry News Overview: The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association opposes "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry; Goldman Sachs lowered its copper supply forecast after the Grasberg mine disruption; Peru's Antamina expects its 2026 copper production to increase to 450,000 tons; Southern Copper's Tía María copper mine project will start construction in October; Chile's Codelco's August copper production dropped 25% [16] 3. Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - Premium and Discount: After the holiday, the spot copper market was quiet. As the weekend approached, the spot purchasing sentiment in the Shanghai copper market picked up, and the premium stabilized. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount narrowed slightly, the New York - London copper price difference decreased, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened slightly [19] - Domestic and Overseas Positions: As of October 10, the Shanghai copper futures position was 216,115 lots, a 1.05% increase from before the holiday, and the average daily trading volume was 175,142 lots, a 18.93% increase. As of October 3, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 14,672.88 lots, a 146.77% week - on - week increase. As of September 23, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 43,389 lots, a 3.07% week - on - week increase [25] 4. Fundamental Data - Supply Side: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia stopped production, and Q4 2025 copper production and sales are expected to decline. In September, domestic and imported crude copper processing fees decreased. As of October 10, the copper concentrate port inventory increased slightly. In September, electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month due to smelter overhauls and anode plate supply shortages [34] - Downstream Operating Rate: As of October 9, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped significantly. In August, the operating rates of copper strips, copper tubes, and copper foils were 65.87%, 65.70%, and 78.44% respectively. High copper prices and trade policies affected the operating rates of some products [37] - Imports and Exports: As of October 10, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper was 7.99, and the loss on copper spot imports widened slightly. In August, refined copper, scrap copper, and unforged copper and copper product imports increased year - on - year [41] - Inventory: As of October 10, SHFE copper inventory increased, domestic social copper inventory increased slightly, LME copper inventory decreased, and COMEX copper inventory increased [48]