集运日报：中美贸易摩擦再起，外盘普遍大幅下跌不，建议继续加仓，设置好止损-20251013

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions and a general sharp decline in the external market, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. - The overall atmosphere remains bearish despite the rebound of the SCFI index, and the market is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - SCFIS and NCFI: On October 6, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1046.50 points, down 6.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 876.82 points, down 4.8%. On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 818.97 points, up 11.50%; the NCFI for the European route was 698.67 points, up 11.39%; the NCFI for the US - West route was 844.43 points, down 0.34% [3]. - SCFI and CCFI: On October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1160.42 points, up 45.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1068 USD/TEU, up 9.9%; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1468 USD/FEU, up 10.76%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1014.78 points, down 6.7%; the CCFI for the European route was 1287.15 points, down 8.2%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 777.77 points, down 5.7% [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - Eurozone: In September, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line; the preliminary services PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4; the preliminary composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2 [3]. - China: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [4]. - US: In September, the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52; the preliminary services PMI was 53.9; the preliminary composite PMI was 53.6 [4]. 3.3 Contract Information - On October 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1570.0, down 3.04%, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - loss [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. 3.5 Other Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. 3.6 Geopolitical Situation - There are conflicting reports about the Israel - Hamas situation. Some reports say Israel's military operations have stopped, while others claim attacks on multiple areas in Gaza are continuing. A cease - fire agreement has been announced by a Hamas official, but some terms of Trump's "20 - point plan" are not mentioned [7].