集运指数欧线周报（EC）：加沙和谈中美关系再度恶化，EC呈现近强远弱-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", specifically "oscillating weakly" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the Gaza peace talks and the deterioration of Sino - US relations, the European Container Freight Index (EC) shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The spot freight rate is favorable, but political and economic factors are unfavorable. The supply of shipping capacity and demand are neutral. In the new long - term agreement cycle in 2026, the market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and increasing bargaining power of cargo owners". The resumption of the Suez route will likely be phased and verified, with the second quarter of next year as the first substantial observation point [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Influencing Factors and Logics - Spot Freight Rate: Bullish. This week, the GEMINI price in early October dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The FAK freight rate center in the market in late September was 1500, and the overall quotation range in late October was 2000 - 2200 (MSK's price increase letter indicates 2500 in early November) [3] - Political and Economic: Bearish. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese - origin goods from November 1. China announced new restrictions on rare - earth exports. The US adjusted the 232 - clause tariff on some products. Israel and Hamas reached a peace agreement, but there are still uncertainties [3] - Shipping Capacity Supply: Neutral. The average weekly shipping capacity deployment in September was 305,000 TEU, 250,000 TEU in October, 280,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [3] - Demand: Neutral. The overall loading rate declined rapidly, lower than the same - period levels of the past two years. The loading rate of GEMINI rebounded due to significant price cuts, while those of the other two alliances continued to decline [3] - Investment View: Oscillating weakly [3] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and the 10 - 12 spread trading is in a long - short positive spread. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - Spot Market: There are data on European line indices, US - West line indices, and US - East line indices, as well as Maersk's European line quotations [6][12] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - Order Volume: There are data on order volume, new - order volume, and order volume by loading capacity [15] - Delivery Volume: There are data on delivery volume and delivery volume by loading capacity [18] - Demolition Volume: There are data on demolition volume and demolition volume by loading capacity [19] - Future Delivery: There are data on future delivery volume, future delivery volume by quarter and season, and future delivery volume by loading capacity [24][26] - Ship - Breaking Price: There are data on ship - breaking price by loading capacity and new - shipbuilding price index and price by loading capacity [31] - Second - Hand Ship Price: There are data on second - hand ship price index and second - hand ship price by loading capacity [37] - Existing Shipping Capacity of Container Ships: There are data on existing shipping capacity, existing shipping capacity by loading capacity, existing shipping capacity of ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofitting ratios, average age, and average age of ship - breaking [46][49][53] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports): There are data on the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, and the shipping capacity deployments of PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN [61][63][65][67][69] - Container Ships with Desulfurization Towers: There are data on container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, average age and duration of installation, and average speed [71][72][75] - Idle Shipping Capacity: There are data on idle shipping capacity, idle shipping capacity by loading capacity, hot - idle shipping capacity, and shipping capacity for desulfurization tower retrofitting [79][80]