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建筑业景气环比提升,建议关注低估值高股息标的
Guotou Securities·2025-10-13 07:35

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the construction industry [5]. Core Insights - The construction industry shows a month-on-month improvement in activity, with the overall PMI output index at 50.6%, indicating continued growth above the critical point [1][18]. - The construction sector is expected to benefit from a traditional peak season in Q4, with project construction accelerating as weather conditions improve, leading to steady growth in infrastructure investment throughout the year [1][18]. - The construction decoration sector has underperformed the market, with a year-to-date increase of 17.43%, ranking 24th among 31 SW primary industries [2][19]. - The report highlights the potential for low-valuation, high-dividend stocks in the construction sector, suggesting that these may offer better value amid rising risk aversion due to escalating trade tensions [2][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The construction industry's business activity index rose to 49.3% in September, with new orders increasing to 42.2%, indicating a slight recovery in demand [1][18]. - The government is expected to enhance policy support for housing, which may lead to a rebound in the real estate market, with an estimated 50 billion square meters of new residential sales during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][20]. Market Performance - The construction decoration sector saw a weekly increase of 2.84%, outperforming major indices such as the Shenzhen Composite Index and the CSI 300 [2][21]. - The overall PE ratio for the construction decoration sector is at 12.06 times, which is lower than the broader market indices, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [2][25]. Key Stocks to Watch - Recommended stocks include Jianghe Group (dividend yield of 7.27%, PE of 13.34), Anhui Construction (dividend yield of 5.78%, PE of 6.24), and Sichuan Road and Bridge (dividend yield of 5.07%, PE of 10.32) among others [2][19][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on low-valuation construction central enterprises and companies with strong international business prospects [12][13].