铜牛徐行，全球铜供应链重构与价格新中枢

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the copper pricing logic shifted from "dominated by Chinese demand" to a ternary structure of "capital pricing + resource politics + supply chain control", with the financial attribute of copper significantly enhanced. The copper price showed a trend of "first decline, then rise, and then fluctuate", and the fluctuation range increased significantly [3]. - The deepening of the Sino - US game reshaped the global copper resource flow, pricing mechanism, and trade pattern. The copper price center will be systematically raised due to the re - evaluation of strategic value, and the fluctuation will intensify due to the fierce game [3]. - In the fourth quarter, the copper market faces three key points: the path after the Fed's hawkish interest rate cut and the speculation of a US economic recession; the variables in the Sino - US game, especially whether the Sino - US tariff negotiation in November will be postponed again; and the re - balance of global copper supply and demand and the inflection point of global copper visible inventory destocking [3]. - In the short term, it is recommended to hold copper speculative long orders, set trailing stops, and be cautious about chasing high prices, mainly trying long on dips. Industrial customers should flexibly adjust the hedging ratio, lock in reasonable profits, and strictly manage positions. In the long term, copper is favored due to its status as an important strategic resource and a substitute for precious metals, as well as the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Review of the First Three - Quarter Market - In early January, due to Trump's weaker - than - expected tariff policy on China and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, Shanghai copper started to rebound from the bottom, breaking through the 76,000 - yuan mark [6]. - In February, the lower - than - expected copper inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and increased overseas mine - end disturbances pushed Shanghai copper to break through the 77,000 - yuan mark [6]. - In March, Trump's escalating threat of imposing import tariffs on copper led to a rapid widening of the price difference between COMEX and LME copper, and Shanghai copper broke through the 80,000 - yuan psychological barrier [6]. - In April, after the implementation of the global tariff war and the exemption of copper tariffs, there was a sharp reversal in expectations, causing copper prices to plummet. Subsequently, with the easing of Sino - US relations, copper prices oscillated and recovered [7]. - In June, due to the reignition of the Middle East conflict and the continuous decline of LME copper inventory, copper prices increased against the seasonal trend [7]. - In July and August, Trump's repeated tariff policies on copper led to significant fluctuations in copper prices. In September, with the Fed's interest rate cut and the supply shortage expectation of copper concentrates, copper prices reached new highs for the year [8]. Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US Reciprocal Tariff Era and Global Economic Slowdown - In the US reciprocal tariff era, Trump's unpredictable policies disrupted market confidence in the US and global economies, leading to a surge in market risk - aversion sentiment. WTO predicted a decline in global goods trade volume, and IMF predicted a slowdown in global economic GDP growth [11]. - Global major economies' inflation situations were differentiated, and central banks' monetary policies shifted from tightening to easing. Geopolitical risks increased significantly, and military use of copper might increase due to the global arms race [14][19]. 2.2 Trump's Copper Tariff (TACO) and Increased Policy Uncertainty - Trump listed copper as a "national security vital resource", and his copper tariff policies had a profound impact on the global copper market. If the 25% copper import tariff policy were implemented, it would distort the global copper trade supply path [21][22]. - The price difference between COMEX and LME copper increased significantly, stimulating cross - market arbitrage. Although the tariff on refined copper was unexpectedly exempted, Trump's tariff policies accelerated the regionalization of the copper supply chain and increased capital risk - aversion sentiment [23][33]. 2.3 US Employment Pressure and Attention to the Fed's Interest Rate Cut in October - US employment data was weak, and inflation showed signs of rising. The Fed cut interest rates in September, and the market expected further interest rate cuts in October and December. The impact of the Fed's monetary policy on copper was greater than that of the domestic central bank's policy [36][42][46]. 2.4 Economic Cycle Reincarnation and Copper at the Eve of a Historic Demand Boom - Globally, the economy was at the end of the sixth Kondratieff cycle and the fifth Juglar cycle. Copper, as an important raw material, was on the verge of a historic demand boom [47]. - Domestically, although there were signs of economic recovery, there were still drag factors such as the real - estate slump. Copper was sensitive to interest rates, exchange rates, and domestic and foreign monetary policies [50]. Chapter 3: Supply Analysis 3.1 Grasberg Mine Shutdown in Indonesia Aggravates the Copper Ore Supply - Demand Gap - Global copper ore supply faced challenges such as long - term insufficient capital expenditure, falling ore grades, and increased mining difficulties. The shutdown of major mines such as Grasberg in Indonesia and political protests at some mines led to a reduction in global copper ore supply [52][55]. 3.2 Deep Inversion of Smelter Processing Fees and Industry Calls for Anti - Involution - Global copper smelting capacity utilization remained high, but copper concentrate supply was short. Smelter processing fees were deeply inverted, and the industry called for anti - involution. The government issued relevant policies to support the development of the copper industry [59][60][64]. 3.3 High Refined Copper Output and Continued Pressure on Imports - In 2025, global smelting capacity was released at a high level, and domestic refined copper output reached a record high. However, due to factors such as high premiums of US and LME copper and the closure of the import window, domestic refined copper imports were weak, and exports increased [67]. 3.4 High Global Visible Inventory and Tight Non - US Inventory - Global copper visible inventory was at a historically high level, mainly concentrated in US COMEX warehouses, while non - US inventory was tight. High copper prices had an inhibitory effect on demand, and attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory inflection point [72][77]. Chapter 4: Demand Analysis 4.1 The Fourth Industrial Revolution Triggers a Surge in Electricity Demand, and Green Copper Demand Shines - The fourth industrial revolution, including the development of new energy and AI, led to a significant increase in electricity demand, which in turn stimulated copper demand. China's power investment maintained resilience, and overseas power markets were also booming [78][79][80]. 4.2 Real Estate in a Difficult Bottom - Grinding Phase and Low Market Confidence - The real - estate market was in a downturn, with falling prices, weak sales, and a large inventory of unsold properties. This had a negative impact on overall copper demand [86][88]. 4.3 The Impact of the Trade - in Policy and the Withdrawal of National Subsidies on the Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance industry's demand for copper maintained resilience, but with the withdrawal of national subsidies and reduced overseas replenishment demand, the industry's performance was expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [91][92]. 4.4 High - Growth of New Energy Vehicles and Booming Green Copper Demand - New energy vehicles had a high copper consumption rate, and global new energy vehicle copper consumption was expected to increase significantly in 2025, becoming an important incremental factor in copper demand [94][95]. 4.5 The Return of Speculative Forces and the Repetition of the 2024 Copper Price Rally - Speculative forces in the copper market became active again, and overseas speculative funds' actions had an impact on copper prices. China needed to enhance its position as a copper pricing center [98][104]. 4.6 Forecast of the 2025 Refined Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Overall, the supply of overseas copper concentrates was tight, while domestic smelting capacity was operating at a high level. The supply - demand of refined copper shifted from a tight balance to a slight shortage, both domestically and globally [105].