美元债双周报（25年第41周）：中国政府停摆引发经济数据缺失，美联储决策难度陡增-20251013

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "weaker than the market" rating for the U.S. stock market [5]. Core Views - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of key economic data, increasing uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1]. - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has declined for three consecutive months, indicating growing public concern about the economic outlook, with inflation expectations remaining high at 4.6% [2]. - Market sentiment has shifted positively due to comments from former President Trump regarding U.S.-China trade relations, despite ongoing government shutdown concerns [2]. - The report suggests that in the context of "tariff disruptions and a dovish Fed," U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline, with a recommendation to focus on medium to short-term U.S. Treasuries [3]. Summary by Sections U.S. Macroeconomics and Liquidity - The government shutdown has resulted in the suspension of key economic data releases, creating a "data vacuum" that complicates economic assessments and policy decisions [1]. - The consumer confidence index reflects a significant drop, indicating heightened economic anxiety among consumers [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises maintaining a core allocation in medium to short-term U.S. Treasuries to lock in yields and reduce volatility, with a potential extension to five years for higher-risk investors [3]. - Investment-grade credit bonds are recommended, particularly in technology and consumer staples sectors, while high-yield bonds should have controlled durations [3]. - Chinese dollar bonds are highlighted for their credit improvement and spread advantages, with a focus on "high quality and short duration" strategies [3]. Key Events and Data - Future attention should be directed towards the upcoming U.S. CPI data and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book [3].