2025年9月贸易点评：9月进出口：加速回升的成色？

Group 1: Trade Performance Overview - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year (in USD), up 3.9 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Imports rose by 7.4% year-on-year (in USD), an increase of 6.1 percentage points compared to August[4] - The overall trade data for September exceeded expectations, indicating a potential for sustained recovery despite ongoing trade tensions with the US[5] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The growth in exports is supported by diversification into non-US markets and upgrades in the industrial chain, with significant contributions from the EU and emerging economies[5] - High-tech products, including integrated circuits and transportation equipment, led the export growth, reflecting a shift towards higher value-added sectors[6] - The "de-involution" policy has positively impacted export prices, with noticeable price recovery in steel and electronics, while labor-intensive products saw price declines[6] Group 3: Import Insights - The surge in import growth was primarily driven by rising international commodity prices, particularly in technology-related sectors like aircraft and integrated circuits[7] - Although there was a marginal recovery in the import of raw materials, the increase was largely price-driven rather than volume-driven, indicating potential short-term volatility[7] - The sustainability of the import growth remains uncertain, as domestic demand recovery appears weak[7] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Future risks include potential policy changes that may not meet expectations and unexpected shifts in the domestic economic landscape[8] - Export fluctuations could also pose risks to the overall trade outlook, necessitating close monitoring of external factors[8]