长江期货养殖产业周报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig price is expected to be weak in the short - term and under pressure in the first half of next year, with potential improvement in the second half. Egg prices are likely to be weak in the short - term and face long - term supply pressure. Corn prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and have cost support in the long - term [5][82][102] - For pigs, short - term supply exceeds demand, but policy support may limit the decline. For eggs, post - holiday demand is weak, and long - term supply adjustment takes time. For corn, new grain listing suppresses prices, and demand growth is limited [5][82][102] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Feed and Livestock Perspective Summary - Pig: The spot price has dropped unexpectedly, and the futures price is running weakly. Supply is increasing, demand is limited, and the price is under pressure. Policy support and other factors may limit the decline. Suggest a bearish view on contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, and focus on the long 05 short 03 arbitrage [5] - Egg: Demand has seasonally declined, and the egg price is running weakly. Short - term supply is sufficient, and long - term supply pressure remains. Suggest shorting contracts 12 and 01 after a rebound [82] - Corn: During the new crop listing period, the futures price rebound is under pressure. New grain supply is abundant, and demand growth is limited. Suggest a bearish view on the 11 contract and focus on the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [102] 3.2 Variety Industry Data Analysis 3.2.1 Pig - Weekly Market Review: As of October 10, the national spot price was 11.14 yuan/kg, down 1.04 yuan/kg from before the holiday. The futures price of 2511 was 11320 yuan/ton, down 1035 yuan/ton. The 11 - contract basis was - 130 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan/ton [5] - Fundamental Data Review: In terms of supply, the proportion of small and large pigs in weekly slaughter decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the weekly average daily slaughter rate and volume decreased, and the frozen product storage rate increased. In terms of cost, the prices of piglets and sows decreased, and the losses of self - breeding and purchased piglet breeding increased [16] - Key Data Tracking: The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly in August but remained at the upper limit of the equilibrium range. The production performance improved, and the supply in the fourth quarter and the first half of next year is expected to be high. The planned slaughter volume of enterprises in October increased [20] 3.2.2 Egg - Weekly Market Review: As of October 10, the average price in the main producing areas was 2.93 yuan/jin, down 0.48 yuan/jin from before the holiday. The futures price of the 2511 contract was 2806 yuan/500 kg, down 232 yuan/500 kg. The basis was - 276 yuan/500 kg, weaker than before the holiday [63] - Fundamental Data Review: In terms of supply, the laying rate recovered, and the inventory of laying hens in September was at a high level. In terms of demand, the post - holiday demand decreased, and the inventory in production and circulation links increased. In terms of profit, the breeding profit decreased [64] - Key Data Tracking: The number of newly - opened laying hens in October decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The number of newly - opened laying hens from November 2025 to January 2026 is expected to decrease. The supply growth rate will slow down, but long - term supply pressure remains [82] 3.2.3 Corn - Weekly Market Review: As of October 10, the平仓 price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2180 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The futures price of the 2511 contract was 2125 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The basis was 55 yuan/ton, weaker than before the holiday [88] - Fundamental Data Review: In terms of supply, the old - crop inventory of traders was low, and new grain was gradually listed. In terms of demand, feed demand increased, but the substitution of wheat and the low - level operation of deep - processing limited the demand for corn. In terms of inventory, the inventory in the north port increased, and that in the south port decreased [90] - Key Data Tracking: The new - crop corn is expected to be abundant due to suitable weather during the growing period. The demand growth is limited, and the price is under pressure in the short - term and has cost support in the long - term [102]