Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the corn futures market will be dominated by the pressure of new grain concentrated listing, maintaining a downward trend in volatility. The technical form is weak, and it may continue to test the support level of the 2,100 yuan integer mark. In the medium term, it is necessary to wait for the supply pressure to be released and the demand side to substantially recover. There may be a phased layout opportunity in late October [6][61] - Operational strategies include short - selling near - month contracts on rallies, holding reverse spreads, and constructing bear spread strategies [7][62] Summary by Directory 1. Trend Review (1) Futures Prices - After the holiday, the corn futures market was weak, showing a downward trend with low openings and continuous declines. As of last Friday's close, the main corn contract C2511 closed at 2,125 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the previous trading day. The trading volume reached 393,175 lots, and the open interest was 591,363 lots [4][10] - Last week, the CBOT corn main continuous contract closed at 413.5 cents per bushel, down 1.14% [15] (2) Spot Prices - Last week, the national weekly average price of corn was 2,336 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/ton. In the Northeast production area, the purchase price of new grain generally decreased. In North China, due to continuous rainfall delaying harvesting, the price fluctuated downward. In the sales area, new grain led the decline, and old grain followed. The price difference between new and old grain was 100 - 120 yuan/ton. Port prices first decreased and then stabilized [5][17] 2. Review of Relevant Information Last Week - Analysts expect that the net sales volume of US corn exports in the week ending October 2, 2025, will be between 1.2 million and 2 million tons [21] - From January to August this year, Russia exported more than 287,000 tons of corn to China, three times the export volume of the same period last year [21] - In September, Brazil's corn export volume was 7.563 million tons, compared with 6.421 million tons in September last year. It is expected that Brazil's corn export volume in October 2025 will be between 5.81 million and 6.3 million tons, with an average of 6.06 million tons, a 6.8% increase from October last year [21] - As of October 7, Kazakhstan had harvested 13.6 million tons of grain, accounting for 84.6% of the total area. As of October 8, Ukraine's grain export volume in the 2025/26 season was 6.937 million tons, a decrease of 4.8 million tons or 40.9% compared with the same period last year [21] - As of October 3, the daily average ethanol production was 1.071 million barrels per day, compared with 995,000 barrels per day in the previous week and 1.038 million barrels per day in the same period last year [22] - As of October 10, more than half of the autumn grain in the country had been harvested. By crop, the harvest of medium - season rice was nearly 60%, corn was over 50%, soybeans were 55%, and double - cropping late rice was sporadically harvested. By region, the harvest in the southwest was over 70%, in the northwest was over 50%, in the northeast was nearly 40%, in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was over 30%, in South China was nearly 30%, and in the Huang - Huai - Hai region was nearly 80%. As of October 10, Ukraine's grain harvest in 2025 had reached 33.03 million tons [22] 3. Analysis of the Corn Supply - Demand Pattern (1) Feed Enterprise Inventory - As of October 9, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 24.49 days, a decrease of 0.72 days from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.06%. During the holiday, the inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly. The main reason was that enterprises mainly consumed previous orders, and the number of new purchase orders was limited. The demand from the downstream breeding end was relatively stable, and feed enterprises were not very enthusiastic about purchasing [26] (2) Deep - processing Enterprise Corn Inventory - Last week, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn deep - processing enterprises was 2.334 million tons, a 14.64% increase from before the holiday (2.036 million tons) and a 14% decrease year - on - year. Currently, new corn has entered the initial stage of listing, and traders are cautious. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has decreased as production consumes inventory [29] (3) Deep - processing Enterprise Corn Consumption - Last week, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed a total of 1.1927 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 31,600 tons. Different types of deep - processing enterprises had different consumption changes [34] (4) Deep - processing Enterprise Startup Situation - Last week, the total national corn processing volume was 544,500 tons, an increase of 17,800 tons from before the holiday. The weekly national corn starch output was 268,000 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons from before the holiday. The weekly startup rate was 51.81%, an increase of 2.36% from before the holiday. With the supply of new grain, the raw material procurement channels of enterprises have expanded, and the cost expectation has become stable, supporting the increase in the startup rate [39] (5) Deep - processing Enterprise Profit Situation - Last week, the hedging by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 235 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it was - 81 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 27 yuan/ton; in Heilongjiang, it was - 178 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 79 yuan/ton. Deep - processing enterprises are generally in a loss range and adopt a "low inventory + fast turnover" strategy [44] 4. Analysis of Related Products (1) Corn Starch - Last week, the corn starch market was weak. The concentrated listing of new corn dragged down the price of corn starch, and downstream players were highly watchful. The mainstream transaction price of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, Jilin, and Heilongjiang decreased compared with before the holiday [50][51] (2) Pigs - Last week, the pig price dropped significantly. As of last Friday, the national average pig slaughter price was 11.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.1 yuan/kg from before the holiday, a week - on - week decrease of nearly 9%. After the double festivals, the pig market was characterized by strong supply and weak demand. The supply of pigs from large - scale breeding enterprises remained high during the festivals, and after the festivals, the slaughter enterprise's startup rate decreased, and the price of white - striped pork fell in tandem with the pig price [59][60]
新粮集中上市施压，价格延续弱势震荡
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-10-13 08:10