Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [7] Core Views - The core contradiction in the current crude oil market is the resonance mismatch between short - term demand concerns triggered by economic and trade frictions and the long - term fundamental situation of supply - demand surplus. The short - term shock amplifies the decline, but the fundamental situation is the core suppressing force [1] - In the short term, the contradiction focuses on "whether the economic and trade frictions can ease" and "the rhythm of the slowdown in the decline". In the long term, the core game lies in "the digestion speed of the supply surplus" and "the recovery strength of global demand" [1] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - The core contradiction is the resonance mismatch between short - term demand concerns from economic and trade frictions and long - term supply - demand surplus fundamentals. Trump's tariff threat, reduction of Brent speculative net long positions, and EIA's warning of supply surplus led to a more than 5% plunge in WTI crude oil, breaking below $60 per barrel. OPEC+ increased production by 400,000 barrels per day in September, the US export was nearly 5 million barrels per day, and China's imports in September decreased by 1.2 million barrels per day month - on - month to the lowest level of the year [1] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - The market is expected to be oscillating weakly, and the recommended month - spread strategy is backwardation arbitrage [7] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Negative Information: Geopolitical risk premium subsided as the cease - fire between Israel and Hamas took effect, reducing concerns about Middle East supply disruptions. Trump's tariff policy upgrade on October 10 triggered a sharp decline in crude oil prices. OPEC+ production increased by 400,000 barrels per day in September, and the restart of oil exports in the Iraqi Kurdish region is expected to increase production in October. US crude oil exports reached nearly 5 million barrels per day, and the increase in water - borne crude oil will boost visible inventory. Asian demand, especially China's, weakened, with China's imports in September dropping to 9.6 million barrels per day [8][9] 2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - Monitor the progress of Red Sea shipping recovery, Trump's tariff policy developments, and the OPEC+ informal meeting on October 17 to see if production cuts or increases will occur [11] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Interpretation - The crude oil futures market has been weak recently. Trump's tariff threat and supply - demand imbalance due to OPEC+ production increase and US exports led to price declines. The market sentiment is bearish, with a significant reduction in Brent speculative net long positions [13] 3.2 Inner and Outer Disk Analysis - Inner Disk: The SC crude oil futures main contract 2511 closed at 466.2 yuan per barrel, down 3.71% for the week. The MACD indicator shows weak momentum, and the price has broken below multiple moving averages. The trading volume was 112,232 lots, and the open interest increased by 3,872 lots to 28,515 lots [15][16] - Outer Disk: On October 10, the WTI main contract settled at $58.9 per barrel, down 3.25% from the previous week, and the Brent main contract settled at $62.73 per barrel, down 2.79%. As of October 7, the Brent crude oil futures open interest decreased by 78,946 lots week - on - week, and the managed funds' net long positions decreased by 60,824 lots [17] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Month - Spread Tracking - The current Brent and WTI crude oil month - spreads maintain a slight backwardation structure, which is expected to deepen in the context of a weak fundamental situation and falling oil prices [25] 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - The spread between SC and Brent crude oil has recovered, with the outer disk falling more this week [29] 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - Recently, the crude oil cracking spread shows a clear differentiation of "strong diesel, weak gasoline". Diesel spreads are supported by winter demand, while gasoline spreads are pressured by weak demand. This differentiation is a result of energy transformation and geopolitical games [42] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - From September 27 to October 3, US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels per day, up 124,000 barrels per day week - on - week. From October 4 to 10, the number of active oil rigs in the US was 418, down 4 rigs week - on - week [65] 5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - From September 27 to October 3, US refinery crude oil input was 16.297 million barrels per day, up 129,000 barrels per day week - on - week, and the refinery utilization rate was 92.4%, up 1 percentage point. From October 3 to 9, the capacity utilization rate of independent refineries in China was 62.24%, down 0.52 percentage points week - on - week, and that of major refineries was 82.26%, up 0.98 percentage points [67] 5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - As of October 3, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels week - on - week, strategic petroleum inventory increased by 285,000 barrels, and Cushing oil inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels [69] 5.4 Balance Sheet Tracking - EIA's September report predicts that global oil demand will increase by 740,000 barrels per day in 2025. Global oil supply reached a record 106.9 million barrels per day in August. Refinery throughput is expected to decline in October due to seasonal maintenance. Global oil inventory increased in July, and the benchmark crude oil price continued to fall in August [71][72][73]
南华期货原油产业周报：关税风波再起，原油跌至五个月低点-20251013
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-13 08:32