Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-13 08:44Group 1: Market Overview - In Q3 2025, the number of listed private placement projects in the A-share market reached 42, an increase of 5 projects quarter-on-quarter and 22 projects year-on-year, raising a total of 773.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 256.70%[10] - The average absolute return of the 24 auction projects that were unlocked in Q3 2025 was 38.67%, with a winning rate of 87.50%, both figures being the highest since 2022[29] - The average market price discount rate for auction projects in Q3 2025 was 14.48%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.25%[14] Group 2: Project Dynamics - The number of auction projects increased to 27 in Q3 2025, with a total fundraising of 420.53 billion yuan, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase of 79.68%[10] - The average number of inquiry institutions per project was 25, with an average allocation of 14 institutions, indicating heightened participation in the auction process[26] - The proportion of projects with a base price issuance dropped to a near three-year low of 7.41%[14] Group 3: Future Outlook - In Q4 2025, the expected index range for the Shanghai Composite Index on the issuance date of unlocked auction projects is between 3238.23 and 3429.76 points, indicating a strong potential for profit from unlocked projects[4] - The number of pending projects for review is currently low at 62, suggesting limited supply in a bullish market environment[4] - The average expected discount rate for auction projects is anticipated to remain around 10%[4] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include slower-than-expected progress in the review of private placements, fluctuations in secondary market stock prices, and changes in the market environment for private placement pricing[4]