瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The HC2601 contract showed weak performance on Monday. Tariff disturbances will dampen market confidence in the short - term and may drag down the hot - rolled coil futures price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 axis. The operation strategy is to be bearish in a volatile market and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,261 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the open interest was 1,422,524 lots, up 24,873 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 47,015 lots, down 691 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread was - 13 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the SHFE was 51,372 tons, up 2,058 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 178 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,350 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,250 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 89 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 70 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 787 yuan/wet ton, down 8 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,950 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 140.2867 million tons, up 0.3132 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 425,500 tons, up 34,900 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.5057 million tons, down 125,400 tons; the billet inventory in Hebei was 1.276 million tons, up 79,400 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.25%, down 0.02 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.53%, down 0.10 percentage points. The hot - rolled coil output of sample steel mills was 3.2329 million tons, down 14,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils was 82.58%, down 0.37 percentage points. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils of sample steel mills was 836,000 tons, up 24,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.293 million tons, up 299,200 tons. The domestic crude steel output was 7.737 million tons, down 229,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 991,700 tons, up 90,700 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile output was 2.8154 million vehicles, up 224,300 vehicles; the monthly automobile sales were 2.8566 million vehicles, up 263,200 vehicles. The monthly output of air - conditioners was 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 9.4532 million units, up 722,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 10.1318 million units, up 1.3575 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - On October 13, customs data showed that in September 2025, China's steel exports were 10.465 million tons, up 955,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.0%; from January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 87.955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In September, China's steel imports were 548,000 tons, up 48,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 9.6%; from January to September, the cumulative steel imports were 4.532 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%. A survey of 20 steel mills in the Northeast region showed that 6 steel mills started maintenance in October, affecting the daily output by 35,000 tons [2]