Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-13 09:05Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern next week. Supply from primary and secondary lead is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term, providing price support. Demand, although generally average, will not decline sharply due to the "Golden September and Silver October" season and the growing demand from the emerging energy - storage sector. The decline in inventory also offers some price support. It is recommended to buy on dips for lead prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,095 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,014.5 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars [2]. - The spread between the November - December contracts of Shanghai lead was - 15 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the open interest of Shanghai lead was 82,733 lots, up 5,004 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 4,383 lots, down 1,402 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 29,569 tons, down 499 tons [2]. - The SHFE inventory was 39,916 tons (weekly), down 1,978 tons; the LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons (daily), down 450 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,925 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,130 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 170 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was 75.2 dollars/ton, up 104.84 dollars [2]. - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,471 yuan, up 43 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) was 16,960 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average开工率 of primary lead was 83.56% (weekly), up 1.46 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.73 tons, up 0.02 tons [2]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 90 dollars/thousand tons, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was - 0.5 thousand tons (monthly), up 1.3 thousand tons [2]. - The global lead mine output of ILZSG was 395.9 thousand tons (monthly), up 15.7 thousand tons; the lead ore import volume was 13.48 tons (monthly), up 1.27 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined lead import volume was 1,820.55 tons (monthly), down 1,596.29 tons; the refined lead export volume was 2,752.22 tons (monthly), up 957.7 tons [2]. - The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 380 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 9,991.07 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The export volume of batteries was 49,680 thousand units (monthly), up 1,925 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) was 19,850 yuan/ton (daily), down 50 yuan [2]. - The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells was 2,133.66 points (daily), down 99.61 points; the monthly automobile output was 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.24 million vehicles [2]. - The monthly output of new - energy vehicles was 133.3 million vehicles, up 15.7 million vehicles [2]. 3.6行业消息 - The US government plans to lay off more than 4,000 people, and the lay - offs will "mainly target Democrats". The US military may face unpaid leave due to the government shutdown [2]. - Trump's list of candidates for the Fed chair has been narrowed down to five [2]. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI report on October 24 at 8:30 am (8:30 pm Beijing time) [2]. - In the Gaza situation, Hamas will fight back if Israel resumes military action, and a Hamas official said the faction is ready to give up the governance of the Gaza Strip. The Sharm El - Sheikh Peace Summit will be held on the 13th, and neither Hamas nor Israeli representatives will attend [2]. - Trump will visit Cairo and Jerusalem to celebrate the cease - fire and hostage - release agreement [2].