Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-13 09:05Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downstream提货节奏 has slowed down and the提货 volume is limited, leading to an overall increase in inland enterprise inventories. However, due to the concentrated procurement of some olefins in Inner Mongolia and the small volume of contracts in the trading link stimulating the upstream提货 rhythm in the production area, the enterprise inventories in the northwest region have not increased but decreased [3]. - Methanol port inventories have accumulated, with a significant increase in inventories in the East China region due to concentrated unloading. The expected methanol imports in October are still sufficient, and port inventories may continue to rise [3]. - In terms of demand, previously shut - down devices such as Qinghai Salt Lake have gradually restarted, and the MTO industry as a whole maintains a high - level operation. The Zhongyuan Ethylene olefin device has a shutdown expectation in the later stage, and other devices are operating stably. The short - term industry operating rate may slightly decline. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2370 in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2342 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 price difference of methanol is - 12 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 32 yuan/ton [3]. - The position volume of the main methanol contract is 991,942 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 9,556 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of methanol is - 115,723 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 28,069 lots [3]. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 11,282, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2290 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 85 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2070 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.5 yuan/ton [3]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest is 220 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 52 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [3]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 256 US dollars/ton, and the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 326 US dollars/ton, both remaining unchanged; the FOB price in Rotterdam is 272 euros/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1 euro/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 70 US dollars/ton, remaining unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.13 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 US dollars/million British thermal units [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 108.05 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4.78 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 46.27 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.32 tons [3]. - The methanol import profit is - 30 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 1.7598 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 657,100 tons [3]. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 339,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 19,500 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.59%, with a week - on - week increase of 7.06% [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 34.11%, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.07%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 4.98%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.22% [3]. - The operating rate of acetic acid is 82.96%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.99%; the operating rate of MTBE is 64.12%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.11% [3]. - The operating rate of olefins is 93.19%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.3%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1133 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 134 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 12.54%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.07%; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 13.14%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.57% [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of methanol is 16.04%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.55%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of methanol is 16.04%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.55% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 339,400 tons, an increase of 19,500 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 6.08%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 115,200 tons, a decrease of 157,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 57.79% [3]. - As of October 9, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.5432 million tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous data. The inventory in the East China region increased by 47,800 tons, and the inventory in the South China region increased by 3,200 tons [3]. - As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 93.74%, a week - on - week increase of 4.49%. Previously shut - down devices such as Qinghai Salt Lake have gradually restarted, and the MTO industry as a whole maintains a high - level operation [3].