瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term supply - demand pattern of live pigs remains relatively loose and is difficult to reverse. It is expected that live pig prices will continue to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations on live pig futures [3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 11,125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan; the main contract position is 57,257 lots, a decrease of 3,135 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 33,606 lots, a decrease of 517 lots [3] Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 11,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; in Siping, Jilin it is 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunfu, Guangdong it is 11,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan; the main live pig basis is - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 295 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, an increase of 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, a decrease of 40,000 heads [3] Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI is - 0.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the corn spot price is 2,294.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.81 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 868.6, a decrease of 8.83; the monthly output of feed is 29,272,000 tons, an increase of 999,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,530 yuan/head, a decrease of 3 yuan; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 301.04 yuan/head, a decrease of 64.47 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is - 152.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 78.04 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 14.37 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,3500,000 heads, an increase of 1840,000 heads; the monthly value of catering revenue in total retail sales of social consumer goods is 449.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.4 billion yuan [3] Industry News - In September 2025, the number of newborn piglets in the sample was 5,676,000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02%, and the sales volume of piglets was 531,400 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 2.87% [3] Viewpoint Summary - The supply side has near - term pressure due to data cycles and postponed出栏 plans, and active retail farmer sales. The demand side has decreased after the festival, with reduced terminal procurement and slaughter enterprise operations. The short - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, and live pig prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Reverse arbitrage operations on live pig futures are recommended [3]