Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-13 09:05Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Core View - The nickel market's oversupply situation is difficult to change, and nickel prices are expected to adjust at a low level. Technically, with increasing positions and price fluctuations, there are differences in trading between bulls and bears, maintaining a range-bound oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2][4]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai nickel was 121,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 770 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread was -260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price was 1,5215 dollars/ton, a decrease of 270 dollars. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai nickel was 74,700 lots, a decrease of 3,140 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai nickel was -28,802 lots, an increase of 545 lots. LME nickel inventory was 242,094 tons, an increase of 4,716 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 33,119 tons, an increase of 3,604 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants totaled 6,198 tons, a decrease of 696 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity for Shanghai nickel was 25,272 tons, an increase of 44 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 122,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,400 yuan. The spot average price of 1 nickel plate from Yangtze River Non - ferrous was 122,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,300 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 28,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract was 1,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 630 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was -193.95 dollars/ton, a decrease of 22.14 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 6.3467 million tons, an increase of 1.3409 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore was 15.0093 million tons, an increase of 0.9156 million tons. The average import unit price of nickel ore was 61.33 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.43 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output was 22,000 metal tons, a decrease of 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 24,426.84 tons, a decrease of 13,807.17 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron was 874,100 tons, an increase of 38,200 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.7379 million tons, an increase of 39,800 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 583,400 tons, an increase of 32,000 tons [2]. Industry News - On October 10th, Eastern Time, the US announced that in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items, it would impose a 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on all key software. The US will levy port fees on relevant Chinese ships on October 14th. The list of candidates for the Fed Chairman has been narrowed to five, and BlackRock executive Rieder has "impressed" Bessent. The Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission and the National Development and Reform Commission plan to deploy AI large models in the government affairs field in a coordinated and intensive manner [2].