瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20251013

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint On Monday, the RB2601 contract fluctuated weakly. Macro - wise, China responded that export controls are not a ban, and applications meeting regulations will be approved. If the US acts willfully, China will take corresponding measures. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar remains low, and the capacity utilization rate has dropped below 45%. Terminal demand is average, and inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing. Overall, tariff disturbances will affect market sentiment in the short - term and may drag down rebar futures prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is to be bearish on fluctuations and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price is 3,083.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the position volume is 1,952,748 lots, up 26,595 lots - RB contract's top 20 net position is - 66,569 lots, up 22,278 lots; the RB1 - 5 contract spread is - 56 yuan/ton, unchanged - RB's Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 280,457 tons, down 2,510 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 178 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) is 3,280.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,364 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan - The price of Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) is 3,300.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Tianjin's is 3,200.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan - The RB main contract basis is 197.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread is 90.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 787.00 yuan/wet ton, down 8.00 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke is 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - free) is 2,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,950.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan - The iron ore inventory at 45 ports is 140.2867 million tons, up 313,200 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants is 425,500 tons, up 34,900 tons - The coke inventory of sample steel mills is 6.5057 million tons, down 125,400 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan is 1.276 million tons, up 79,400 tons - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.25%, down 0.02%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.53%, down 0.10% [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The rebar output of sample steel mills is 2.034 million tons, down 36,200 tons; the rebar capacity utilization rate is 44.59%, down 0.80% - The rebar inventory in sample steel mills is 1.9234 million tons, up 334,300 tons; the social rebar inventory in 35 cities is 4.673 million tons, up 239,600 tons - The operating rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills is 64.58%, down 1.05%; the domestic crude steel output is 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons - China's monthly rebar output is 1.518 million tons, down 23,000 tons; the net steel export volume is 991,700 tons, up 90,700 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.05, down 0.28 - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment is 0.50%, down 1.10% - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment is - 12.90%, down 0.90% - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 2.00%, down 1.20% - The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.43109 billion square meters, down 4.378 million square meters - The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 398.01 million square meters, down 4.595 million square meters - The unsold housing area is 402.29 million square meters, up 3.07 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs on October 13, in September 2025, China exported 10.465 million tons of steel, an increase of 955,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.0%; the cumulative steel exports from January to September were 87.955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In September, China imported 54,800 tons of steel, an increase of 4,800 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 9.6%; the cumulative steel imports from January to September were 453,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% - According to the survey, the planned southward shipment volume of rebar from the Northeast in October is 371,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons. The planned southward shipment volume of wire rod is 270,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 48,000 tons [2]