Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-13 09:05Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint On Monday, the RB2601 contract fluctuated weakly. Macro - wise, China responded that export controls are not a ban, and applications meeting regulations will be approved. If the US acts willfully, China will take corresponding measures. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar remains low, and the capacity utilization rate has dropped below 45%. Terminal demand is average, and inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing. Overall, tariff disturbances will affect market sentiment in the short - term and may drag down rebar futures prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is to be bearish on fluctuations and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price is 3,083.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the position volume is 1,952,748 lots, up 26,595 lots - RB contract's top 20 net position is - 66,569 lots, up 22,278 lots; the RB1 - 5 contract spread is - 56 yuan/ton, unchanged - RB's Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 280,457 tons, down 2,510 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 178 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) is 3,280.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,364 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan - The price of Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) is 3,300.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Tianjin's is 3,200.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan - The RB main contract basis is 197.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread is 90.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 787.00 yuan/wet ton, down 8.00 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke is 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - free) is 2,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,950.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan - The iron ore inventory at 45 ports is 140.2867 million tons, up 313,200 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants is 425,500 tons, up 34,900 tons - The coke inventory of sample steel mills is 6.5057 million tons, down 125,400 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan is 1.276 million tons, up 79,400 tons - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.25%, down 0.02%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.53%, down 0.10% [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The rebar output of sample steel mills is 2.034 million tons, down 36,200 tons; the rebar capacity utilization rate is 44.59%, down 0.80% - The rebar inventory in sample steel mills is 1.9234 million tons, up 334,300 tons; the social rebar inventory in 35 cities is 4.673 million tons, up 239,600 tons - The operating rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills is 64.58%, down 1.05%; the domestic crude steel output is 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons - China's monthly rebar output is 1.518 million tons, down 23,000 tons; the net steel export volume is 991,700 tons, up 90,700 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.05, down 0.28 - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment is 0.50%, down 1.10% - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment is - 12.90%, down 0.90% - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 2.00%, down 1.20% - The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.43109 billion square meters, down 4.378 million square meters - The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 398.01 million square meters, down 4.595 million square meters - The unsold housing area is 402.29 million square meters, up 3.07 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs on October 13, in September 2025, China exported 10.465 million tons of steel, an increase of 955,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.0%; the cumulative steel exports from January to September were 87.955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In September, China imported 54,800 tons of steel, an increase of 4,800 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 9.6%; the cumulative steel imports from January to September were 453,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% - According to the survey, the planned southward shipment volume of rebar from the Northeast in October is 371,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons. The planned southward shipment volume of wire rod is 270,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 48,000 tons [2]