Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-13 09:03Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the gradual resumption of operations of maintenance enterprises, the production capacity of domestic tire enterprises is expected to increase significantly this week. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,800 - 15,400 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,400 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,940 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,040 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,900 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 151,771 lots, up 7,754 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 29,855 lots, down 416 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 28,163 lots, down 4,162 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 10,961 lots, up 397 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 142,940 tons, down 1,450 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 41,429 tons, up 100 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,250 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,850 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,850 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,200 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 690 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,144 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 1,104 yuan/ton, up 229 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 59.11 Thai baht/kg, up 0.64 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 55.1 Thai baht/kg, down 1.01 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 53.9 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 51.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.8 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 171 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 15.8 US dollars/ton, up 20.8 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 113,100 tons, down 8,800 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 268,400 tons, up 8,900 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 50.87%, down 14.85 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 55.26%, down 18.32 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.87 days, up 0.36 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.7 days, down 0.23 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.91%, down 0.7 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.99%, up 1.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.69%, up 0.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.68%, up 0.08 percentage points [2] Industry News - From October 12 - 18, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red area was mainly in northern and central Vietnam, and rainfall in most other areas was low, with a slightly reduced impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red area was mainly in eastern Malaysia, and rainfall in most other areas was medium - to - low, with an increased impact on tapping. In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon. In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1.05 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 8.21 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20%. As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a month - on - month decrease of 17.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 36.62 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 13.83 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.78 percentage points [2] Viewpoint Summary - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the weather is normal and raw material supply is okay, but the purchase price has decreased slightly due to the decline in futures and spot prices. In Hainan, continuous rainfall has restricted tapping operations, and the seasonal increase in raw materials has slowed down. Affected by the decline in domestic and foreign futures and spot markets, local processing plants are cautious about increasing the purchase price of raw materials. The total inventory in Qingdao Port has decreased slightly compared with before the holiday. The bonded warehouse has seen inventory accumulation, while the general trade warehouse has seen inventory reduction. After the holiday, downstream enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, and there has been no large - scale replenishment [2]