避险情绪增加，贵金属谨慎追高

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - After gold reached a new high above 4000 points, the market believes that the short - term adjustment pressure has increased, but the overall view of the gold market remains bullish. The disagreement within the Fed over interest rate cuts adds more uncertainty to the future upward trend of precious metals. Before the Fed's interest rate cut expectation at the end of the month, precious metals may still have the momentum to rebound, and the operation rhythm needs attention. The precious metals face callback pressure [2][29]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - After the interest rate cut was implemented, the US dollar index rose significantly, and precious metals had a certain degree of correction. The market is currently trading on the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, a total of 50 basis points. The US government shutdown further strengthened the safe - haven property of precious metals. Gold and silver may rise synchronously driven by the expectation of consecutive Fed interest rate cuts. The upward trend of silver also needs to pay attention to the short - term fluctuations of gold [9]. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Trump is negotiating a Gaza cease - fire agreement, which is close to being reached, and the negotiation with Hamas "seems to be going smoothly", and he may go to the Middle East this weekend. - The bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to pass in the Senate. Trump plans to cut some federal programs popular with Democrats. - The preliminary value of the US consumer confidence index in October decreased slightly by 0.1 to 55, hitting a 5 - month low but still higher than market expectations. Consumers expect the inflation rate in the next year to be 4.6%, slightly lower than the previous month's estimate of 4.7%. - US Vice - President Vance released some easing signals regarding Trump's latest tariff threat. - China's rare - earth export control is not a ban on exports. China will impose a special port fee on US - related ships starting from October 14 in response to the US 301 investigation restrictions on China's shipbuilding industry [12][14][15]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - Due to the US government shutdown, it is difficult to track US economic data. The preliminary value of the US consumer confidence index in October decreased slightly, and consumers' inflation expectations decreased slightly. The US ISM manufacturing index in August was lower than expected and below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new order index expanded for the first time this year, but the output index fell back into the contraction range. There are various expectations for the release of US economic data in the third quarter, but no detailed prediction is made due to the lack of reliable data [16]. 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Trump is close to reaching a Gaza cease - fire agreement. China will impose a special port fee on US - related ships and opposes the US plan to impose a 100% tariff on China. International trade turmoil intensifies, and there is a possibility of further intensification of US tariff policies, increasing the safe - haven sentiment [20]. 3.3 Other Financial Markets - US non - farm employment in August was far lower than expected, the unemployment rate rose to a new high since 2021, and the initial jobless claims moving average increased. The US economic downward pressure increased, indicating the necessity of interest rate cuts. The US service industry PMI reached a new high. Crude oil is still greatly affected by production cuts, and there are differences in the trends of domestic and foreign copper prices. After the interest rate cut in September and the increasing expectation of an interest rate cut in October, high - risk - preference varieties such as US stocks, copper, and crude oil may strengthen further, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited due to production increase pressure [21]. 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The offshore RMB exchange rate mainly follows the US dollar index passively. After the holiday, the RMB exchange rate appreciated significantly due to the improvement of domestic economic data such as consumption. However, whether the RMB can have an independent trend needs further observation. Currently, the exchange rate issue has not affected the trend of gold, and the Shanghai gold still basically follows the trend of US gold [25]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The US government shutdown and international political turmoil have pushed up the safe - haven sentiment, driving gold to reach new highs. After gold reached a new high above 4000 points, the short - term adjustment pressure increased. Whether gold can continue to strengthen and drive silver up needs further observation [29].