Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The domestic coking coal and coke markets rose and then stabilized this week. The first round of coke price increase was implemented on the 1st, with a rise of 50 - 55 yuan/ton for stamp - charged coke and 70 - 75 yuan/ton for top - charged coke. The second - round price increase may be pushed forward next week. The supply of coking coal is relatively stable, and downstream replenishment has slowed down. The market is expected to remain volatile in the future [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The domestic coking coal and coke markets rose and then stabilized. The first - round coke price increase was implemented on the 1st, with a rise of 50 - 55 yuan/ton for stamp - charged coke and 70 - 75 yuan/ton for top - charged coke. The second - round price increase may be pushed forward next week [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order [6]. - In the first eight months of 2025, the added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than that of large enterprises. In August, the SME export index was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months [6]. - In September, the central bank's SLF net investment was 1.9 billion yuan, MLF net investment was 30 billion yuan, PSL net withdrawal was 8.83 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase net investment was 39.02 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net investment was 30 billion yuan [6]. - In September, the sales of the top 100 real - estate enterprises in China rebounded. According to the China Index Academy, the total sales of the top 100 real - estate enterprises increased by 11.9% month - on - month. According to the CRIC Research Center, the sales operating amount of the top 100 real - estate enterprises reached 25.278 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 22.1% and a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [6]. - In September, the estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide were 1.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 22% and a month - on - month increase of 16%. From January to September this year, the cumulative wholesale was 10.446 million, a year - on - year increase of 32% [6]. - In September, about 105,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the 58,000 sold in the same period last year [7]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 94.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in December is 0.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 19.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 80.1% [7]. - As of October 10, the total inventory of imported iron ore in Chinese steel mills was 90.4619 million tons, a decrease of 9.906 million tons from the previous period. The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 299,140 tons, an increase of 340 tons from the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.24 days, a decrease of 3.35 days from the previous period [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Some coal mines in Lvliang and Linfen were shut down for 2 - 8 days during the National Day holiday. Except for individual mines in the region for shutdown and maintenance, the impact time was relatively short, and the overall output was relatively stable with little fluctuation. The overall supply was balanced [2]. - Demand side: Coking and steel enterprises mainly consumed the inventory prepared before the festival. Due to the unclear price trend after the festival, the downstream replenishment willingness was cautious, and the overall raw - material inventory was maintained near the safety inventory line. The subsequent steel trend still needs to be observed [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Market outlook: During the holiday, coking enterprises mainly consumed in - plant inventory, and the procurement willingness decreased. The spot coal price was weakly stable. After the festival, coal - mine production will quickly return to normal, but the production level will still be restricted. Although downstream replenishment has slowed down, there is still rigid demand under high molten - iron production. The fundamentals are relatively healthy. The Sino - US tariff war has little impact on the fundamentals, but the macro - sentiment may fluctuate repeatedly. It is expected that the future price will remain volatile [29]. - Investment strategy: For single - side trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - delivery spread arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for coking profit, mainly wait and see [2][30]
首轮提涨落地，下游补库放缓
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-10-13 09:32