贵金属策略报告-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to move up in the short - term with a step - up trend in the long - term. Silver prices are anchored to gold price trends. The short - term rise in gold is driven by increased short - term risk aversion, enhanced risk - hedging attributes, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The silver market shows slight increases in net long positions and ETF holdings, along with a slight decrease in visible inventories [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals fluctuated upwards. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 1.99%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.84% [2]. - Core Logic: In the short - term, risk aversion has increased due to the trade war and the US government shutdown. The risk of US economic stagflation has risen, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts is being realized. Trump's trade war escalation, the US government shutdown, and the French Prime Minister's resignation have increased market uncertainty. Fed officials' warnings about the labor market and support for rate cuts, along with disappointing employment data and in - line inflation data, have strengthened the bet on further rate cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 rate cuts this year. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices [2]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. - Data Summary: There are detailed data on international and domestic gold prices, basis, spreads, ratios, open interest, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and ETF holdings, as well as the net position rankings of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Gold Exchange [3][4]. Silver - Price Anchor: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices [6]. - Fundamentals: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [6]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - Data Summary: There are detailed data on international and domestic silver prices, basis, spreads, open interest, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and ETF holdings, as well as the net position rankings of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Silver Exchange [7][8]. Key Fundamental Data - Federal Reserve - Related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, the discount rate is 4.25%, the reserve balance interest rate is 4.15%, and the Fed's total assets are $66416.68 billion. M2 year - on - year growth is 4.77%. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, and US Treasury spreads have changed to varying degrees [9]. - Other Key Indicators: There are data on US inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, and risk - hedging and commodity - related indices [11][13].