原油供需预期偏弱

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint OPEC+ is gradually exiting the production cut action, leading to an expected increase in crude oil supply. On the demand side, the US government shutdown and the expectation of a new round of tariff policies cast a shadow over the global energy demand outlook. Additionally, the partial ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced the geopolitical premium effect included in crude oil. The fundamental driving force is weak [2][28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices were oscillating weakly. The SC2512 contract opened at 472 for the week, reached a high of 459, a low of 463, and closed at 463, with a weekly increase of 17.5 or 3.64% [3]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis - OPEC: OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production. In September, OPEC's production increased by 400,000 barrels per day month - on - month, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia's increase of 320,000 barrels per day. Iraq's production is expected to increase in October. OPEC+ countries updated their compensation production cut plans from September 2025 to June 2026. Voluntary production - cut OPEC+ countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The partial ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced the geopolitical premium effect of crude oil [3][4]. - Russia: In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In 2025, the expected production is 515 - 520 million tons. In August 2025, Russia's crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 barrels per day. Due to the attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine, Russia's crude oil exports are approaching a high level. In September, its exports to India increased by 29% to 1.73 million barrels per day, to Turkey increased by 11% to 375,000 barrels per day, and to China decreased by 12% to 1.12 million barrels per day [6]. - US: As of the week ending October 3, the US crude oil daily production was 13.629 million barrels, an increase of 124,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week and 229,000 barrels per day compared to the same period last year. The EIA estimates that from 3Q25 to 2Q26, the global oil inventory will build by more than 2 million barrels per day on average. The predicted average price of Brent crude oil next year is $51 per barrel [7]. - Americas: The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and for 2026 from 1.9 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. Non - OPEC+ producers plan to increase production by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and slightly more than 1 million barrels per day next year [13]. - Inventory: As of July 2025, OECD commercial inventories were 2.761 billion barrels, an increase of 2.4 million barrels from the previous month. As of the week ending October 3, US crude oil inventories increased by about 2.8 million barrels, far exceeding the market expectation of 2.3 million barrels [14]. - Consumption: The IEA has raised the oil demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day and maintained the average oil demand growth forecast for 2026 at 700,000 barrels per day. BP has postponed its forecast of the global oil demand peak from 2025 to 2030. As of the four - week period ending October 3, the US refined oil demand was 20.897 million barrels per day on average, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [19][20]. - Refined oil processing fee: In the week of September 26, the weekly average comprehensive profit of Shandong independent refineries processing imported crude oil was 186 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18 yuan per ton. The profit of major refineries was 823 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 99 yuan per ton [21]. - Refinery operation rate: As of the week ending October 9, 2025, the US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.476 million barrels per day, an increase of 52,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the refinery operation rate was 93.00%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous week. The operation rate of major refineries in China was 62.24%, a decrease of 1.26% from the previous week, and the operation rate of Shandong local refineries was 50.43%, a decrease of 3.06% from the previous week [23]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy OPEC+ is gradually exiting the production cut action, leading to an increase in crude oil supply. On the demand side, the US government shutdown and the expectation of a new round of tariff policies cast a shadow over the global energy demand outlook. Additionally, the partial ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced the geopolitical premium effect included in crude oil. The fundamental driving force is weak [28].