供需宽松，库存预期高位

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. This week, the domestic soda ash production is expected to remain stable at a high level. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be relatively stable, and the output of downstream float glass is expected to operate steadily. Against the backdrop of loose supply and demand of soda ash, it is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain at a high level in the near future. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 1285 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market showed a dull and stable trend, with relatively firm prices. The weekly comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76%. The domestic soda ash output was 77.08 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 0.66 thousand tons, a decline of 0.85%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 165.98 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday. The supply was affected by individual enterprise short - stops, and the demand was weakly stable, with good spot - futures transactions after the holiday [8]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply Side: As of October 9, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76%. The supply of soda ash this week is expected to remain at a high level, with an overall operating rate of about 88 + %. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the soda - ammonia method was - 76.50 yuan/ton, and that by the ammonia - soda method was - 29.25 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [12]. - Demand Side: In the photovoltaic glass industry, after the National Day holiday, the inventory of sample enterprises rose to 114.61 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.33%, and the average inventory days were 22.67 days, an increase of 8.17 days compared with September 25. In the float glass industry, as of October 9, the average operating rate was 76.01%, unchanged week - on - week, and the average capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, a 0.09 - percentage - point increase. The output is expected to run steadily [16]. - Inventory: As of October 9, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 165.98 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday. The inventory of light soda ash was 73.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.24 million tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 92.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.75 million tons [18]. 2.2 Position Analysis - As of October 10, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 956,961, an increase of 48,812, and the short positions were 1,241,366, an increase of 112,518. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [20]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. This week, the domestic soda ash production is expected to remain stable at a high level. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be relatively stable, and the output of downstream float glass is expected to operate steadily. Against the backdrop of loose supply and demand of soda ash, it is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain at a high level in the near future. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 1285 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22].