股债跷跷板叠加避险情绪，震荡为主

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Domestic consumption market shows strong resilience during the "Double Festival" holiday, with cross - regional personnel flow hitting a record high. A - shares may experience increased short - term volatility but have a long - term positive trend. The bond market in the fourth quarter is likely to be in a moderately strong and volatile pattern [2][3] - In the fourth quarter, the probability of incremental holistic counter - cyclical adjustment policies is low, with more focus on structural policies [3] - The impact of the stock - bond seesaw on the bond market is complex, and the bond market's mid - term trend is moderately strong with oscillations and no obvious trend [3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic and ample liquidity make bond market operations difficult. The 30 - year treasury bond shows obvious oscillation at the key neckline position [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - From January to August, the added value of industrial SMEs above designated size increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than large enterprises. The SME export index in August was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months [12][15] - China's rare - earth export control is not a ban, and applications that meet the regulations will be approved. China opposes the US plan to impose a 100% tariff [12][15] - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 1.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 98.3%. In December, the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative cut is 91.7% [14] - US Vice - President Vance signaled a willingness for rational negotiation between Trump and China [14] - In September, the central bank's SLF net investment was 1.9 billion yuan, MLF net investment was 300 billion yuan, PSL net withdrawal was 88.3 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase net investment was 390.2 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net investment was 300 billion yuan [14] - The US added multiple Chinese entities to the export control "Entity List", and China firmly opposes this [14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - The economic endogenous power is strengthening, and the downward pressure is weakening. If counter - cyclical adjustment continues to increase, it will be negative for the bond market [15] 3.2 Policy Aspects - In August, the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest since June 2021. The growth rate of social financing stock increased slightly, and the narrowing gap indicates strengthened economic activities [17] 3.3 Capital Aspects - DR007 has been declining since July 25, reducing capital costs. The central bank will maintain ample liquidity, and the Fed's rate cut may open space for domestic monetary policy [20] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspects - The third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be allocated in July. The special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal are 200 billion yuan, and the issuance of special bonds has accelerated [23] 3.5 Sentiment Aspects - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term oscillation range, indicating increased market attention to stocks. The long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [25] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - A - shares may have increased short - term volatility but a long - term positive trend. The bond market in the fourth quarter is expected to be moderately strong with oscillations [28]