成本弱化叠加需求压力渐显，PX、PTA维持颓势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The PX and PTA markets are maintaining a downward trend due to weakened cost support and increasing demand pressure, and the polyester industry chain is expected to continue facing pressure [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On October 10, the PX main contract closed at 6,504.0 yuan/ton, down 1.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -84.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,534.0 yuan/ton, down 1.09% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -44.0 yuan/ton [2] - The supply pressure of PX and PTA may increase marginally in the short term. The continuous decline in crude oil prices may suppress PX processing fees, triggering some high - cost devices to reduce production. The resumption of some short - stopped PTA devices and the weakening of cost support may lead to a further decline in prices [2] - The demand drive of the polyester industry chain is weak. The decline in light textile city trading volume and the seasonal weakening of the terminal textile industry may lead to a reduction in polyester factory operating rates and a lack of continuous demand support for PTA [3] - The probability of marginal accumulation of PTA factory inventory has increased. The weakening demand and high supply may slow down inventory consumption, and the negative basis reflects weak trader purchasing willingness. If inventory accumulation is confirmed, it will drive down the futures price [3] 3.1.2 Polyester - On October 10, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,200.0 yuan/ton, down 1.46% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,370.0 yuan/ton, down 35.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 170.0 yuan/ton [4] - Most polyester varieties are facing inventory accumulation pressure. The weakening prices of PX/PTA at the cost end, seasonal weakening of downstream demand, and high inventory may continue to put pressure on the industry chain, but the possibility of PTA device maintenance after processing fee compression needs to be watched [4] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.25%, trading volume decreased by 5.96%, and open interest decreased by 7.04%. PX spot prices in the Chinese main port and South Korea also declined [5] - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.09%, trading volume increased by 5.69%, and open interest increased by 4.77%. PTA spot prices and some spreads changed, and import profit increased [5] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.46%, trading volume increased by 55.62%, and open interest decreased by 16.66%. Short - fiber spot prices declined, and some spreads changed [5] - Other industrial chain prices: Crude oil, naphtha, and most polyester product prices changed, and some processing spreads also changed. The trading volume in the light textile city increased, and the load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged. The inventory days of some polyester products changed [5][6] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macro Dynamics - On October 10, the central bank of the Democratic Republic of the Congo plans to establish gold reserves when the gold price soars; there are different views within the Fed on interest rate cuts; the US Bureau of Labor Statistics recalls some employees to compile the CPI report [7] - On October 9, the Fed's September meeting minutes showed internal division among officials and a cautious hint of further interest rate cuts this year; last week, US EIA crude oil inventories increased more than expected [7] 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On October 10, the total trading volume in the light textile city was 832.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 22.35%, with 629.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 205.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [8] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts related to PX, PTA, short - fiber futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, processing profits, capacity utilization, load rates, trading volume, and inventory days [9][11][13][15][17][19][22][24][25][26][27][28] 3.5 Appendix (Analysis of Future Price Trends) - Supply side: The operating rates of PX and PTA devices are crucial. The decline in crude oil prices may put pressure on PX costs, and high PTA operating rates may increase supply and suppress prices [35] - Demand side: The operating rate of polyester and the trading volume in the light textile city are important. The decline in trading volume may indicate weakening demand, and a decrease in polyester operating rates may reduce PTA demand [35] - Inventory side: Although there is no specific inventory data, if demand weakens and supply increases, inventory may accumulate, which is unfavorable for prices [35]