Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.21 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.8%. However, net profit decreased by 23.8% to 809 million yuan, while adjusted net profit remained stable with a slight increase of 0.1% to 1.182 billion yuan [2][3]. - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) business is expected to significantly contribute to revenue, with the launch of the hilo product in Japan and Poland driving sales growth. The company anticipates double-digit growth in its vaping business, benefiting from regulatory changes in Europe and the U.S. [2][3]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 4.0% to 444 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 10.6%, slightly down from 11.5% in Q3 2024. Despite the decline in profit margin, the overall performance remains strong, with future profit elasticity expected due to the anticipated growth in HNB product sales and ongoing investments in medical vaping [3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts EPS (Earnings Per Share) of 0.22, 0.39, and 0.59 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 67, 37, and 25 times [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.382 billion, 17.486 billion, and 20.589 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21.9%, 21.6%, and 17.7% respectively. Net profit is expected to recover, with growth rates of 3.0%, 78.1%, and 52.2% for the same period [9].
思摩尔国际（06969）：Q3业绩超预期，期待HNB加速放量