粕类周报：中美贸易战升级，关注国内情绪变化-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term M01 may rebound due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, but the rebound height is limited by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the high domestic soybean meal inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino - US policies, South American La Nina weather speculation, and US soybean yield adjustments [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The USDA's estimated yield per acre of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season may be further reduced. Brazilian soybean planting has started smoothly, with a sowing rate of 8.2% as of October 4. In October, domestic soybean stocks are expected to decline, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. Under the Sino - Canadian trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink, while the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [4]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the distant months. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high feed addition ratio. The downstream spot trading of soybean meal is good, while the downstream trading of rapeseed meal is cautious [4]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean stocks have reached a high level. This week, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has slightly decreased, and the inventory is at a high level. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased. Domestic rapeseed stocks have declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal stocks have been continuously depleted, but the inventory level is still at a high level in the same period of previous years [4]. - Basis/Spread: The basis is neutral [4]. - Profit: The profit of Brazilian soybean crushing has deteriorated, while the profit of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [4]. - Valuation: From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation. From the perspective of basis, the recent price of soybean meal futures is at a neutral valuation [4]. - Macro and Policy: The Ministry of Transport's announcement of charging special port fees for US ships is expected to increase the cost of some soybean imports and ocean freight. Trump's announcement of imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese - imported goods has escalated the Sino - US trade tension [4]. - Investment View: The market is expected to be volatile [4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and arbitrage is on hold. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [4]. Part Two: Fundamental Data on Supply and Demand of Meal Products - Inventory - Consumption Ratio: In September, the inventory - consumption ratio of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season increased, while the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio decreased. The inventory - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased [33][39]. - US Soybean Situation: The sowing rate and excellent - good rate of US soybeans are presented. The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has slightly declined. The export sales performance of US soybeans is poor [48][53][65]. - Import and Price: The CNF premium of soybeans, the import price of Canadian rapeseed, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real are shown. The monthly import volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China is also provided [72][75][77]. - Inventory: The inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China is at different levels. The inventory of soybeans is at a high level, soybean meal has a slight reduction in inventory, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [80]. - Trading Volume and Consumption: The trading volume and consumption of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The spot trading volume of soybean meal has increased, but the holiday pick - up volume has declined [103]. - Price Difference and Feed Production: The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the monthly feed production are shown [115][117]. - Breeding Situation: The breeding profits and related data of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are presented, including the decline in pig prices and the high weight of pigs [119][123][127]