Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-13 09:30Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - On Monday, Treasury bond spot yields weakened collectively, while Treasury bond futures strengthened. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.45%. Domestically, the import growth rate in September significantly rebounded, and the export to major economies continued to grow. The manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.8, and the non - manufacturing PMI fell to the critical point. Overseas, the US announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on China, then released a conciliatory signal. The US government is in a shutdown state, and the labor market has cooled, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. Driven by risk - aversion sentiment, the bond market may get some support, and interest rates may decline slightly in the short term. The probability of the new tariff actually being implemented is low. The performance of the bond market will be affected by the progress of the new public bond fund regulations, the fundamental trend, and market risk preference. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position and closely monitor policy trends and sentiment changes [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices and Volumes: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts increased by 0.1%, 0.03%, 0.02%, and 0.37% respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 85,927, 60,280, 31,658, and 124,744 respectively, all showing an increase compared to the previous period [2]. - Futures Spreads: The spreads of TL2512 - 2603, T2512 - 2603, TF2512 - 2603, and TS2512 - 2603 all increased, while the spreads of T12 - TL12, TF12 - T12, TS12 - T12, and TS12 - TF12 decreased [2]. - Futures Positions: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 223,514, 127,796, 65,877, and 144,977 respectively. The positions of T and TF main contracts increased, while those of TS and TL decreased. The net short positions of T, TF, and TL increased, while that of TS decreased [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - CTD Bonds: The net prices of some CTD bonds increased, while others decreased [2]. - Active Treasury Bonds: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active Treasury bonds decreased by 0.5bp, 1bp, 1.8bp, 2bp, and 3.45bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate increased by 1.98bp, the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 10.74bp, and the 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate remained unchanged. The overnight Shibor remained unchanged, the 7 - day Shibor increased by 4.4bp, and the 14 - day Shibor decreased by 1.6bp [2]. - LPR Rates: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 137.8 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 0, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In September, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 8.3% year - on - year, imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was 90.45 billion US dollars. China's September rare - earth exports were 4,000.3 tons, and imports were 6,864.7 tons. On October 12, US Vice - President Vance released conciliatory signals regarding Trump's new tariff threat [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - On October 16 at 02:00, the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions. On October 16 at 20:30, the US September retail sales month - on - month rate will be announced [3].