纸浆周报：老仓单压力较大，纸浆底部震荡-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply is bearish as Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, but the FOB price of softwood pulp decreased [4]. - Demand is bearish as the production and prices of wood - pulp paper have not risen significantly, and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has not led to inventory reduction [4]. - Inventory is bearish as of October 9, 2025, the inventory in major Chinese pulp ports increased by 2.2% to 2.077 million tons, remaining at a high level [4]. - Valuation is relatively strong as the basis of hardwood pulp has strengthened to over - 1000 yuan, and pulp futures have entered a low - valuation range [4]. - Investment view suggests an 11 - 1 reverse spread. Pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driver and the pressure from old warehouse receipts is high, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PART ONE: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Influencing Factors and Driving Forces - Supply: Bearish. Suzano's price adjustments and the decrease in softwood pulp FOB price [4]. - Demand: Bearish. Lack of significant increase in production and prices of wood - pulp paper and no inventory reduction during the peak season [4]. - Inventory: Bearish. Rising inventory in Chinese ports [4]. - Valuation: Relatively strong. Strengthened basis of hardwood pulp [4]. - Investment and Trading Strategies - Investment view: 11 - 1 reverse spread, with a suggestion to wait and see [4]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral: N/A; Arbitrage: 11 - 1 reverse spread. Risk focus: Depletion of pulp warehouse receipts [4]. 3.2 PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures Market - Pulp futures continued to decline, mainly due to the pricing of the delivery value of old warehouse receipts. There is no large - scale trading of bleached needle - leaf pulp, making it easy to fall and difficult to rise [7]. - As of October 10, 2025, the total open interest of pulp futures contracts increased by 16.58% to 392,329 lots, while the open interest of the main contract decreased by 11.16% to 131,626 lots [22]. - Spot Market - Hardwood pulp prices rose, while softwood pulp prices fell. For example, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5,570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and 180 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - In September, the FOB price of hardwood pulp increased, while that of softwood pulp decreased [19]. 3.3 PART THREE: Fundamental Data of Pulp Supply and Demand - Imports - In August, pulp and wood chip imports decreased. For instance, total pulp imports were 2.653 million tons, down 7.79% [5]. - Inventory - Chinese port pulp inventory increased, while the number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Overseas, the inventory of softwood pulp mills increased, and that of hardwood pulp mills remained stable [32][35]. - Downstream Demand - In September 2025, the production of paper products increased month - on - month. For example, the production of double - offset paper was 729,000 tons, up 0.7% month - on - month [46]. - The inventory of white cardboard decreased, while that of other paper types remained stable. As of September 2025, the inventory of double - offset paper was 1.83 million tons, up 3.8% month - on - month [53]. - European and American Markets - European pulp demand is recovering, and American demand is stable. In August 2025, the available inventory days of European softwood pulp increased by 1.76 to 30.3 days [72]. 3.4 PART FOUR: Pulp Futures Valuation - Basis and Spread - The pulp basis weakened. As of September 19, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian needle - leaf pulp was - 32 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton week - on - week [81]. - The 11 - 1 month spread narrowed. As of October 10, 2025, it was - 290 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton week - on - week [81]. - Import Profit - Pulp import profit improved. As of October 10, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp was 444 yuan/ton, up 134 yuan/ton week - on - week [84].