玉米周报：新粮卖压预期，玉米震荡筑底-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating weakly" for the corn market. Without significant policy and weather changes, the 01 contract is expected to follow the pricing of the production area and show an oscillating bottoming trend [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply is bearish due to new grain concentration, concerns about new grain quality in North China, and reduced import grain supply [4]. - Demand is short - term bullish and medium - term bearish. Feed production increased in August 2025, but high inventory and poor downstream demand limit the increase in demand [4]. - Inventory is bullish as port, feed enterprise, and deep - processing corn inventories are at low levels [4]. - Basis/spread is neutral with the basis at a neutral level [4]. - Profit is bearish for livestock and poultry breeding but improving for deep - processing starch and alcohol [4]. - Valuation is neutral, being slightly high from the planting cost perspective and low from the absolute futures price perspective [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply factors: New grain is concentrated for listing, North Port resumes loading, and import grain supply is reduced. The 25/26 planting cost decreases, and the estimated port - collection price is 1950 - 2100 yuan/ton [4]. - Demand factors: In August 2025, the national industrial feed output was 2936 tons, up 3.7% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year. However, the downstream demand is weak, and the finished product inventory is high [4]. - Investment view: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate and bottom out, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress, traders' purchasing mentality, and policy changes [4]. - Trading strategy: The C01 contract is expected to be oscillating weakly, and arbitrage is on hold [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents multiple price trend charts, including the basis trend of the main corn contract, national average price, port prices, and starch prices, as well as charts of futures contract positions and spreads [6][8][11]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Supply: North Port corn arrivals are shown, and in August, the import of corn and sorghum was at a low level, and the import of barley declined [20][26]. - Inventory: Port, feed enterprise, and deep - processing corn inventories are at low levels [33][40][59]. - Demand: Feed production data is provided, and deep - processing corn consumption is seasonally increasing, but downstream demand in starch and other industries is weak [42][67]. - Profit: Livestock and poultry breeding is in a loss, while deep - processing starch and alcohol processing profits are improving [44][67][89]. 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - The September report shows a slight downward adjustment of the corn stock - to - consumption ratio of major exporting countries in 2025/26 [108]. - Data on US corn export sales, including total and to China, are presented [115][121].