银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20251013

Group 1: Market Information - The closing price of the CF01 contract was 13,300, down 25; the CF05 contract was 13,360, down 15; the CF09 contract was 13,530, down 20; the CY01 contract was 19,360, down 15; the CY05 contract was 19,590, up 35; the CY09 contract was 19,745, down 245 [3]. - The CCIndex3128B price was 14,789 yuan/ton, up 32; the CY IndexC32S was 20,440, down 20; the Cot A was 0.00 cents/pound, down 76.05; the FCY IndexC33S was 21,302, down 9; the (FC Index):M: arrival price was 0.00, down 73.90; the Indian S - 6 was 55,800, unchanged; the polyester staple fiber was 7,450, up 70; the pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,030, unchanged; the viscose staple fiber was 13,000, unchanged; the viscose yarn R30S was 17,250, unchanged [3]. - The 1 - 5 month cotton spread was - 60, down 10; the 5 - 9 month was - 170, up 5; the 9 - 1 month was 230, up 5; the 1 - 5 month yarn spread was - 230, down 50; the 5 - 9 month was - 155, up 280; the 9 - 1 month was 385, down 230 [3]. - The CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,060, up 10; the CY05 - CF05 was 6,230, up 50; the CY09 - CF09 was 6,215, down 225; the 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 1,482, up 14; the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 625, up 14; the internal - external yarn spread was - 862, down 11 [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of the week ending October 10, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 269,100 tons, 8.6% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 27% slower year - on - year. The inspection volume of US upland cotton was 269,100 tons, with a progress of 9.57%, 27% slower year - on - year; Pima cotton inspection had not started. The weekly deliverable ratio was 69.2%, the quarterly was 80.6%, 7 percentage points higher year - on - year and 4 points lower quarter - on - quarter [6]. - In the week of September 18, US upland cotton contracts were 19,500 tons, down 54% week - on - week. The cumulative US upland cotton contracts were 920,600 tons, slightly lower than 1,124,700 tons last year. Due to the US government shutdown, USDA weekly data was not updated [6]. - The IMEA predicted the 2025/26 cotton yield in Mato Grosso at 2.62 million tons, a 13% decrease from the previous cycle. The sown area was expected to be 1.46 million hectares, a 5.7% reduction. As of October 2, the 2025 cotton processing progress nationwide was about 50% [7]. Trading Logic - During the holiday, as new cotton entered the market, the focus shifted to the opening price. Xinjiang's high cotton yield and low ginner enthusiasm led to no large - scale rush for purchases, with some purchase prices around 6 yuan/kg. With more new cotton on the market, there would be selling - hedging pressure on the futures. The peak season demand was expected to have limited impact on the futures [8]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to move sideways, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly weaker [9]. - Arbitrage: Hold off [10]. - Options: Hold off [11]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The all - cotton grey fabric market remained weak, with low - count fabric sales declining. In October, mills had insufficient orders and mainly produced small batches. Affected by macro factors, fabric manufacturers were cautious in pricing. Orders in Xinjiang were okay, while those in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were insufficient. Traders had low stocking willingness, and the pure - cotton yarn market's trading center was moving down [11][13]. Group 3: Options - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 8.5181, slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 9.3%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.5%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 13.1% [15]. - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.7609, and the trading volume PCR was 0.9918. Both call and put trading volumes increased [16]. - Options strategy: Hold off [17].