Group 1: Overall Trade Performance - China's September exports denominated in US dollars increased by 8.3% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 5.7% and the previous value of 4.4%; imports increased by 7.4% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 1.4% and the previous value of 1.3%; the trade surplus was $90.45 billion, compared with a previous surplus of $102.33 billion [1][4]. - From January to September, China's cumulative export amount increased by 6.1% year-on-year, compared with a 5.82% increase for the whole of last year; the cumulative import amount decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, compared with a 1.03% increase for the whole of last year [4]. Group 2: Export by Region - In September, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 15.6% year-on-year (14.7% from January to September, 12% for the whole of last year); exports to the EU increased by 14.2% year-on-year (8.2% from January to September, 3.0% for the whole of last year); exports to the US decreased by 27.0% year-on-year (-16.9% from January to September, 4.9% for the whole of last year); exports to South Korea increased by 7.0% year-on-year (-0.3% from January to September, -1.8% for the whole of last year); exports to Japan increased by 1.8% year-on-year (4.4% from January to September, -3.5% for the whole of last year) [2][5]. - In September, China's exports to countries and regions other than the top five export destinations increased by 16.5% year-on-year, faster than the overall export growth rate of 8.3% [2][5]. - In the first nine months of this year, China's exports to countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative increased by 11.4% year-on-year; exports to Africa from January to September increased by 28.3% year-on-year, compared with a 3.5% increase for the whole of 2024; exports to Latin America from January to September increased by 6.9% year-on-year, compared with a 13.0% increase for the whole of 2024 [2][5]. Group 3: Export by Product Category - In the first nine months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached $1.55 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 8.6% (8.1% from January to August, 7.5% for the whole of last year); high-tech product exports increased by 7.1% year-on-year (6.4% from January to August, 4.8% for the whole of last year); integrated circuit exports increased by 23.3% year-on-year (22.1% from January to August, 17.4% for the whole of last year); exports of automobiles (including chassis) increased by 10.8% year-on-year (10.8% from January to August, 15.5% for the whole of last year); exports of ships increased by 21.4% year-on-year (18.3% from January to August, 57.3% for the whole of last year) [2][8]. - In the first nine months, exports of household appliances decreased by 2.2% year-on-year (-1.2% from January to August, 14.1% for the whole of last year); exports of mobile phones decreased by 9.8% year-on-year (-11.5% from January to August, -3.1% for the whole of last year); exports of clothing and clothing accessories decreased by 2.5% year-on-year (-1.7% from January to August, 0.3% for the whole of last year); exports of toys decreased by 8.3% year-on-year (-5.2% from January to August, -1.7% for the whole of last year); exports of furniture and parts decreased by 4.8% year-on-year (-5.3% from January to August, 5.8% for the whole of last year); exports of luggage and similar containers decreased by 11.5% year-on-year (-11.5% from January to August, -3.2% for the whole of last year) [2][8]. Group 4: Import Performance - In September, China's imports exceeded expectations. The import of integrated circuits was 55.5 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 12%, with an amount of $41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%; the import of copper ore concentrates was 2.59 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and the amount spent was $7.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24% due to the year-on-year increase in copper prices; the import of iron ore concentrates was 116 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and the amount spent was $11.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13% as the price was slightly higher than the same period last year; the import of crude oil was 47.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and the amount spent was $23.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7% as the crude oil price fell compared with the same period last year; the import of automobiles (including chassis) was 41,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 26%, and the amount spent was $2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 36% [3][9][10]. - In September, the largest year-on-year increase in imports was for aircraft with an empty weight of more than 2 tons. 27 were imported, a year-on-year increase of 93%, and the amount spent was $2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 201% [10]. Group 5: International Trade Environment and Outlook - In September, South Korea's exports increased by 12.7% year-on-year (1.3% in August), and Vietnam's exports increased by 24.7% year-on-year (14.5% in August), indicating that the overall international trade environment in September was good [3][11]. - In September, the eurozone's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line again, indicating that the eurozone's manufacturing industry was in recession; the US ISM manufacturing PMI new orders index in September was 48.9, falling back below the boom - bust line, and the US ISM services PMI index in September was 50.0 [3][11]. - In the fourth quarter, China's year-on-year export growth rate is expected to slow down due to the high base last year, and the results of a new round of Sino - US trade negotiations will also have a certain impact on China's exports [3][11]. - The World Trade Organization raised its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2025 from 0.9% to 2.4% on October 7, and significantly lowered its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2026 to 0.5%, compared with 1.8% in August [11].
中国9月出口增长超预期
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-10-13 09:36