贸易摩擦加剧，有色承压运行：铜铝周报-20251013

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: Sino-US trade friction expectations have intensified, putting pressure on copper prices. Last week, copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper once reached the $11,000 mark, and SHFE copper reached the 88,000 mark. This was due to the decline of precious metals, the rebound of the US dollar index, and strong technical pressure as copper prices were at a near 5-year high, leading to a strong willingness among short-term bulls to close positions. The sharp rise was mainly caused by supply shortages, macro and financial attributes, and demand resilience. On Friday night, the renewed rise in Sino-US trade friction expectations led to a general market decline, with the non-ferrous sector under significant pressure and copper leading the decline, with SHFE copper falling nearly 3,000 yuan/ton. After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, but as prices fell, industrial support may continue to strengthen. The rise in tariff expectations will affect downstream export expectations, putting pressure on the non-ferrous sector. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. The short-term negative impact was fully reflected in Friday's night session, and LME copper prices rebounded before the domestic market opened on Monday. Sustainable attention can be paid to the technical support at the 83,000 mark, and copper prices may continue to stabilize and rebound [4][54]. - Aluminum: Sino-US trade friction expectations have intensified, putting pressure on aluminum prices. Last week, aluminum prices rose and then fell. On Friday night, affected by Sino-US trade friction, aluminum prices declined significantly. Since late September, driven by the rise in copper prices, the non-ferrous sector has generally risen, and aluminum prices have followed suit. However, aluminum prices faced certain pressure at the mid-September high, and there was a strong willingness among bulls to close positions. After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, and the continuous increase in downstream aluminum rod inventories also put pressure on futures prices. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices in the non-ferrous sector can stabilize, which largely determines the direction of the sector. Technically, SHFE aluminum can focus on the support at the late-September low [5][55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - On Friday night, the renewed rise in Sino-US trade friction expectations led to a general market decline, with the non-ferrous sector under significant pressure and copper leading the decline, with SHFE copper falling nearly 3,000 yuan/ton. Since late September, copper prices have recorded significant gains, so short-term bulls have a strong willingness to close positions. At the industrial level, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices after the holiday, but as prices fall, industrial support may continue to strengthen. The rise in tariff expectations will affect downstream export expectations, putting pressure on the non-ferrous sector. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. On Monday morning, US President Trump issued another statement, regarded by the market as a "TACO" trade [9]. 3.2 Copper - Volume and Price Trends: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper once reached the $11,000 mark, and SHFE copper reached the 88,000 mark, affected by the decline of precious metals, the rebound of the US dollar index, and strong technical pressure [4][54]. - Copper Ore Processing Fees: Copper ore processing fees have rebounded slightly from a low level [25]. - Electrolytic Copper De-stocking: The pace of electrolytic copper de-stocking has slowed down [28]. - Downstream Primary Sector: No specific content provided in the report. 3.3 Aluminum - Volume and Price Trends: Last week, aluminum prices rose and then fell. On Friday night, affected by Sino-US trade friction, aluminum prices declined significantly. Since late September, driven by the rise in copper prices, the non-ferrous sector has generally risen, and aluminum prices have followed suit [5][55]. - Upstream Industry Chain: No specific content provided in the report. - Electrolytic Aluminum Stockpiling: The pace of electrolytic aluminum stockpiling has slowed down [44]. - Downstream Primary Sector: After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, and the continuous increase in downstream aluminum rod inventories put pressure on futures prices [5][55]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. Sustainable attention can be paid to the technical support at the 83,000 mark, and copper prices may continue to stabilize and rebound [4][54]. - Aluminum: Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices in the non-ferrous sector can stabilize, which largely determines the direction of the sector. Technically, SHFE aluminum can focus on the support at the late-September low [5][55].