关税扰动情绪，钢矿震荡运行：钢材&铁矿石日报-20251013

Report Title - Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report, dated October 13, 2025 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Rebar: The main contract futures price fluctuated downward, with a daily decline of 0.77%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, rebar supply is contracting while demand is weak. With a supply-demand imbalance, industrial contradictions are accumulating. Holiday inventory increased significantly, pressuring steel prices again. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that rebar will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - Hot-rolled coil: The main contract futures price fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.88%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coils is relatively large, and there are concerns about demand. Industrial contradictions are accumulating, inventory has increased significantly, and hot-rolled coil prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly. Attention should be paid to the possibility of intensified industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand and demand performance [4]. - Iron ore: The main contract futures price fluctuated strongly, with a daily increase of 1.13%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, iron ore demand is performing well, providing support for ore prices. However, supply is at a high level, and demand resilience is weakening. The fundamentals are expected to deteriorate. Coupled with weakening market sentiment due to tariff disturbances, the upward driving force for high-valued ore prices is not strong. It is expected to maintain high-level oscillatory operation, and attention should be paid to steel performance [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - Foreign trade data: In the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%. Among them, exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8% [6]. - Automobile market data: In September, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the overall domestic passenger vehicle market was 57.8%. National passenger vehicle retail sales in September were 2.241 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a month-on-month increase of 11.0%. Cumulative retail sales this year reached 17.005 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. In September, passenger vehicle exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) were 528,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% and a month-on-month increase of 5.7%. From January to September, passenger vehicle exports by manufacturers were 3.999 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. In September, new energy vehicles accounted for 40.1% of total exports, an increase of 15 percentage points compared to the same period [7]. - Steel trade data: In September 2025, China exported 1.0465 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 95,500 tons and a month-on-month increase of 10.0%; from January to September, cumulative steel exports were 8.7955 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. In September, China imported 54,800 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 4,800 tons and a month-on-month increase of 9.6%; from January to September, cumulative steel imports were 453,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [8]. 2. Spot Market - Steel spot prices: Rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was priced at 3,190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 3,190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3,237 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton. Hot-rolled coils (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai were priced at 3,320 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, they were 3,250 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3,370 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton. Tangshan steel billets (Q235) were priced at 2,950 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was priced at 2,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - Iron ore spot prices: 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was priced at 796 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) was priced at 812 yuan/ton, unchanged. Ocean freight rates from Australia were 9.58 yuan/ton, up 0.01 yuan/ton; from Brazil, they were 23.64 yuan/ton, down 0.52 yuan/ton. The SGX swap (current month) was priced at 106.40 US dollars/ton, up 1.49 US dollars/ton. The Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was priced at 107.40 US dollars/ton, up 1.55 US dollars/ton [9]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar futures: The closing price of the active contract was 3,083 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%. The highest price was 3,114 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,066 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1,231,858 lots, an increase of 192,496 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 1,952,748 lots, an increase of 26,595 lots [11]. - Hot-rolled coil futures: The closing price of the active contract was 3,261 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.88%. The highest price was 3,295 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,245 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 557,390 lots, an increase of 143,388 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 1,422,524 lots, an increase of 24,873 lots [11]. - Iron ore futures: The closing price of the active contract was 804.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.13%. The highest price was 804.5 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 791.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 344,315 lots, an increase of 119,517 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 485,339 lots, an increase of 9,148 lots [11]. 4. Related Charts - Steel inventory: Included charts of rebar inventory (weekly changes, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), hot-rolled coil inventory (weekly changes, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), and related inventory data trends [13][14][16]. - Iron ore inventory: Included charts of 45-port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal changes, inventory month-on-month changes), 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventory [20][21][25]. - Steel mill production: Included charts of 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, 247 steel mills' profitable steel mill ratios, 87 independent electric furnace operating rates, and 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profit and loss situations [28][30][34]. 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: During the holiday, both supply and demand of rebar weakened. Construction steel mill production was weak, and weekly rebar production decreased by 36,200 tons month-on-month. Supply contracted to a relatively low level, but the space for production cuts during the peak season was questionable, and inventory was high, so the positive effect was not strong. At the same time, rebar demand was weak during the holiday, weekly apparent demand decreased month-on-month, and high-frequency indicators were all at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry showed no signs of improvement, and weak demand would continue to suppress steel prices. It is expected that rebar will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to post-holiday demand performance [35]. - Hot-rolled coil: The supply-demand pattern continued to weaken. Plate steel mill production was weakly stable, and weekly production decreased by 14,000 tons month-on-month, but it was still at a high level for the year, and inventory was high, so supply pressure was relatively large, continuing to pressure steel prices. At the same time, hot-rolled coil demand was weak during the holiday, and weekly apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons month-on-month. The relative positive factor was that the production of the main downstream cold-rolled products remained at a high level, providing support for hot-rolled coil demand. However, it should be noted that the industrial contradictions in the cold-rolled industry were not alleviated, and combined with limited improvement in external demand, there were concerns about hot-rolled coil demand. Hot-rolled coil prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly, and attention should be paid to the possibility of intensified industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand [35]. - Iron ore: There were changes in both supply and demand. Steel mill production was stabilizing, and the terminal consumption of iron ore remained at a high level. Last week, the daily average pig iron output and daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills showed mixed changes, with little overall change. Iron ore demand was performing well, but the industrial contradictions in the steel market were constantly accumulating, and the resilience was expected to weaken, so the positive effect was not strong. At the same time, domestic port arrivals continued to recover, while overseas miner shipments declined slightly, both maintaining high levels for the year. Overseas supply was high under high ore prices, and combined with the recovery of domestic ore supply after the holiday, the supply pressure of iron ore increased. It is expected that iron ore will maintain high-level oscillatory operation, and attention should be paid to steel performance [36].