瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As the U.S. corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, putting continued downward pressure on U.S. corn prices. In the domestic market, the supply pressure of raw corn increases with the gradual increase in the listing volume of new - season corn, leading to a weakening of the overall price. The cost support for corn starch declines accordingly. The downstream demand for corn starch is also affected by factors such as industry shutdowns during holidays, high inventory, and substitution by other starches, resulting in a bearish outlook for the starch market. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2092 yuan/ton, with a change of - 31 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 7 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 86 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1 yuan/ton. - Futures holdings (active contract): yellow corn decreased by 39308 hands, and corn starch increased by 128727 hands to 552055 hands. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn are - 38911 hands, with a change of - 36940 hands; for corn starch, it is - 8137 hands, with a change of 959 hands. - Registered warehouse receipts: 14009 hands for yellow corn, an increase of 12982 hands; 36709 hands for corn starch, an increase of 4954 hands. - The spread between the main CS - C contracts is 347 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1 yuan/ton. [2] 3.2 Outer - Market - The closing price of CBOT corn futures (active contract) is - 5 cents per bushel. - CBOT corn total weekly positions are 413.5 million, an increase of 13269. - The non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 51186 hands, a decrease of 15017 hands. [2] 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2294.31 yuan/ton, with a change of - 9.81 yuan/ton. - Factory quotes for corn starch: 2510 yuan/ton in Changchun, 2750 yuan/ton in Weifang, and 2680 yuan/ton in Shijiazhuang, all unchanged. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2.63 yuan/ton, and the international freight is 0 dollars/ton. - The basis of the corn starch main contract is 44, with a change of 109; the basis of the corn main contract is NAN. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 202.31 yuan/ton, with a change of 86 yuan/ton; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 2448.44 yuan/ton, with a change of 3 yuan/ton; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is 154.13 yuan/ton, with a change of - 6 yuan/ton. [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - Forecasted planting areas (in million hectares): 35.89 million in the United States, 22.6 million in Brazil, 7.5 million in Argentina, 44.3 million in China. - Forecasted corn production (in million tons): 425.26 million in the United States, 131 million in Brazil, 53 million in Argentina, 295 million in China, and 32 million in Ukraine. [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: 250,000 tons in northern ports, a decrease of 118,000 tons in southern ports. - Starch enterprise weekly inventory is 115,000 tons, with a change of 4300 tons. - Monthly import volume of corn is - 100,000 tons; monthly export volume of corn starch is 6000 tons, an increase of 1440 tons. - Monthly feed production is 999,000 tons. [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Corn starch processing profit: 2927.2 yuan/ton in Shandong, with a change of 19 yuan/ton; 24.49 yuan/ton in Hebei, with a change of 10 yuan/ton; 119.27 yuan/ton in Jilin, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton. - Alcohol enterprise operating rate is 3.49%; starch enterprise operating rate is 54.96%, with an increase of 2.36 percentage points. [2] 3.7 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of corn is - 0.45%; the historical 60 - day volatility is 9.68%, with a change of 0.06 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is - 0.86%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 11.97%, with a change of - 0.86 percentage points. [2] 3.8 Industry News - As of October 8, Argentina's 2025/26 corn planting area accounted for 25.6% of the total expected area (7.8 million hectares), 5.8% higher than a week ago and 7.9% ahead of the same period last year. - As of October 9, 2025, Russia had harvested 131 million tons of grain, with a harvest progress close to 90%. [2] 3.9 Key Concerns - Thursday and Friday's mysteel corn weekly consumption, as well as the operating and inventory conditions of starch enterprises. [3]