国债期货延续底部震荡整理

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - On October 13, 2025, Treasury bond futures opened higher and closed slightly up. The sudden tariff threat from Trump last Friday led to a rapid decline in the risk appetite of the capital market and an increase in risk - aversion sentiment, which was beneficial to Treasury bond futures. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and there is an expectation of a loose monetary policy, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. However, the domestic economic data shows strong resilience in the short term, and the necessity of a comprehensive interest - rate cut is insufficient. The implied interest - rate cut expectation between the market interest rate and the policy interest rate is weak, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is also insufficient. In general, in the short term, both the upward momentum and the downward space of Treasury bond futures are limited, and they will mainly fluctuate and consolidate at the bottom [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News and Related Charts - On October 13, the People's Bank of China conducted 137.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.4%. There were no reverse repurchase maturities in the open market that day, resulting in a net investment of 137.8 billion yuan [5] - On October 13, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the import and export situation in the first three quarters of 2025. According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Among them, exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.1%; imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.2%. In September, the total imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 8% [5]