贸易摩擦预期升温，市场避险需求上升：贵金属周报-20251013

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - During the National Day holiday in 2025, international gold prices rose continuously. New York and London gold prices broke through the key psychological level of $4,000 per ounce, with a holiday increase of over 4% and a year - to - date increase of over 50%. The strong performance of gold prices is mainly due to the resonance of three driving factors: surging避险需求 driven by government shutdowns and geopolitical conflicts, expectations of monetary policy including interest - rate cut trades and damaged US dollar credit, and structural inflow of funds with central bank and ETF buying [3][26]. - On the night of last Friday, due to President Trump's post on social media about imposing a 100% tariff on China, commodities and US stocks generally declined, while the gold price fluctuated upwards. Sino - US trade frictions have increased market避险情绪, which is beneficial for precious metals, and gold may continue to outperform silver. However, the short - term general decline of assets may lead to liquidity problems, causing short - term pressure on the gold price. It is expected that precious metals may show a trend of first decline and then rise, and attention can be paid to the support at the $4,000 level for overseas gold and the RMB 900 level for domestic gold [3][26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Weekly Trend: No specific text description of the weekly trend is provided, only a chart of the US dollar index linkage is mentioned [7]. - Indicator Changes: From September 30th to October 10th, COMEX gold increased by 3.80% from $3,887.60 to $4,035.50, COMEX silver increased by 1.44% from $46.84 to $47.52, SHFE gold futures increased by 3.11% from 874.40 to 901.56, and SHFE silver futures increased by 1.50% from 10,918.00 to 11,082.00. The US dollar index increased by 1.06%, the US dollar against the offshore RMB increased by 0.22%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.05, the S&P 500 decreased by 2.03%, and the US crude oil continuous contract decreased by 6.71%. The COMEX gold - silver ratio increased by 2.33%, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio increased by 1.58%. The SPDR gold ETF increased by 4.28, and the iShare gold ETF increased by 3.69 [8]. 3.2 Escalation of Trade Frictions and Rising Safe - Haven Demand - During the National Day holiday, international gold prices rose continuously, and after the holiday, the prices remained strong. On Friday night, due to Trump's statement about imposing tariffs on China, market避险情绪 quickly rose. However, the gold price showed a fluctuating upward trend rather than a one - sided increase, mainly because the general decline of global assets led to short - term liquidity problems and put pressure on the gold price [10]. - The expectation of Sino - US trade frictions rapidly escalated last Friday night, causing the market panic to spread quickly and the US stock market to decline significantly [12]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to the data on September 23rd, compared with the previous week, the long - position change was 6,030 contracts, the short - position change was 5,691 contracts, and the net long - position change was 339 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs, but its update frequency is low and timeliness is poor [14]. - Last week, the ETF holdings changed little. Due to the rising避险情绪 last week, the increase of gold was greater than that of silver, and the gold - silver ratio continued to rise. Also, last Friday, due to the escalating expectation of Sino - US trade frictions, the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined significantly, and the 10 - 2 year spread narrowed [16][20][22]. 3.4 Conclusion - The strong performance of gold prices is due to the resonance of three factors: surging避险需求, expectations of monetary policy, and structural inflow of funds. Sino - US trade frictions are beneficial for precious metals, and gold may continue to outperform silver. Precious metals are expected to show a trend of first decline and then rise, and attention can be paid to the support at the $4,000 level for overseas gold and the RMB 900 level for domestic gold [3][26].