南华期货集运产业周报：加沙停火一阶段达成，宏观情绪跌宕-20251013

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The core factor affecting the EC price trend this week is geopolitical risk. The initial agreement on the Gaza ceasefire has significantly reduced geopolitical risk, increasing the possibility of mainstream shipping companies resuming Red Sea voyages, which is negative for market sentiment and will also put pressure on freight rates from the supply side in the long term. The approaching time for the US to impose port fees on Chinese ships and the US's announcement of a 100% tariff on China are both negative for the European index futures price from a macro - sentiment perspective. However, Trump's subsequent remarks on social media leave some room for improvement, presenting certain positive factors. In the short term, futures prices, especially far - month futures prices, are more likely to continue to fluctuate slightly downward or return to a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East and the development of Sino - US relations [1]. - The current spot cabin quotes for the European route and the SCFI European route have stopped falling and rebounded, enhancing the short - term valuation of near - month futures prices. However, geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment have certain negative impacts, and the possibility of a rebound from low levels should be guarded against [2]. - Uncertainties remain in the Middle East situation. If the Gaza ceasefire process shows significant setbacks or Red Sea voyages are truly resumed, it will have a relatively significant impact on futures prices. In the first eight months of this year, the peak - season characteristics of the European container shipping market were relatively vague. For the following months, the demand in the off - season may further weaken, and the demand support during peak seasons like December may also be relatively weak [5]. - The container shipping index (European route) futures (EC) prices showed a wide - range volatile trend under the influence of geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment this week. Technically, the short - term moving average crossed below the long - term moving average again, indicating a short - term downward expectation. Recently, there has been no significant change in the positions of the main players in the container shipping market, but the net short positions of profitable players and foreign investors have slightly increased, indicating that the market sentiment remains relatively bearish [31]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Factors and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Factors - Geopolitical risk is the core factor affecting the EC price trend. The Gaza ceasefire agreement reduces risk, increasing the possibility of Red Sea resumption and pressuring freight rates. Sino - US trade frictions have both negative and positive impacts on futures prices [1]. - The current situation of European route spot cabin quotes and SCFI European route is positive for near - month futures price valuation, but geopolitical and macro - factors have negative impacts [2]. - Uncertainties in the Middle East and the demand characteristics of the European container shipping market are important factors affecting futures prices [5]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Arbitrage Strategy: Traders can try the 10 - 12 positive spread arbitrage [11][40]. - Trend Judgment: The downward momentum continues. The short - term support level for the main contract is in the range of 1450 - 1500, and the pressure level is in the range of 1700 - 1750. The overall strategy can be relatively bearish, and short - term intraday trading is recommended due to geopolitical and macro uncertainties. Traders can temporarily stay on the sidelines in the spot - futures (basis) strategy [11]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Cargo Space Management: For those with full cargo space or poor booking volume and worried about freight rate decline, they can short container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1700 - 1750 to lock in profits [11]. - Cost Management: To prevent an increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, they can buy container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1450 - 1500 to determine booking costs in advance [11]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - The FBX comprehensive route index decreased by 4.53% to 1540.00 dollars/FEU, the CICFI decreased by 0.01% to 647.22 points, the SCFI increased by 4.12% to 1160.42 points, the NCFI increased by 11.5% to 818.97 points, the CCFI decreased by 6.68% to 1014.78 points, and the CFFI decreased by 4.99% to 2399.00 points [10]. - The SCFIS European route decreased by 6.60% to 1046.50 points, the SCFIS US - West route decreased by 4.82% to 876.82 points, the SCFI European route increased by 9.99% to 1068 dollars/TEU, the SCFI US - West route increased by 0.55% to 1468 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI US - East route increased by 2.81% to 2452 dollars/FEU [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: US stock futures rebounded on the evening of October 12. Trump softened his tone on Sino - US relations. CMA CGM announced a price increase for the Asia - to - Nordic route starting from November 1. The SCFI European route stopped falling and rebounded [25]. - Negative Information: Maersk may resume Red Sea voyages. China will impose special port fees on US - related ships starting from October 14. Trump announced a 100% tariff on China and new export controls on key software products on October 10 [26][27][28]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's export trade situation [29]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation - Unilateral Trend and Fund Flow: The container shipping index (European route) futures prices showed a wide - range volatile trend. Technically, there is a short - term downward expectation. Market sentiment is relatively bearish as the net short positions of profitable players and foreign investors have slightly increased [31]. - Basis Structure: The SCFIS European route continued to decline with a slightly narrowing decline. The basis of the main contract EC2510 decreased compared with the previous week. As the delivery month approaches, the basis has fallen to a relatively reasonable range. Affected by the contract change, the basis rate has significantly decreased, and caution is needed for hedging at the current level [35]. - Calendar Spread Structure: The spreads of the container shipping European route inter - month contracts EC2510 - 2512, EC2510 - 2602, and EC2512 - 2602 were - 449.9 points, - 216.9 points, and 233.0 points respectively. The decline in each month's contract price was mainly due to geopolitical risks and macro - factors, with a greater negative impact on far - month contracts. Traders can try the 10 - 12 contract positive spread arbitrage [40]. Chapter 4: Profit Analysis - In the first half of the year, mainstream shipping companies such as COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Maersk, and CMA CGM Group had relatively good profit and revenue performance, while some shipping companies such as ONE and Yang Ming Marine Transport saw a significant reduction in profits compared with the same period last year. Most shipping companies still achieved profitability, indicating that the current market is not bad. For the second half of the year, liner companies believe that uncertainty has increased, and they will operate more cautiously, which may affect freight rates from the supply and cost sides [44].