Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal R & D Report [1][4] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend after the holiday, with limited downward space. If the downstream demand in October recovers beyond expectations, the steel price may rise further. The "14th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market fluctuations. [7] - Due to low production, rebar production increased before the holiday, while hot - rolled coil production continued to decrease, and the export performance remained strong, so the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is expected to expand. [7] Summary by Directory Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3190 yuan (- 10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3140 yuan (- 20), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3320 yuan (- 20), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3250 yuan (- 20). [6] Market Judgement - Market Situation: The black metal sector showed differentiation. Steel maintained a weak oscillating trend, while iron ore prices rose. Steel spot trading was generally weak, with speculative trading at low prices being acceptable during the market rebound, but rigid demand was average. Some steel mills reduced production of hot - rolled and rebar, and there was significant inventory accumulation during the holiday, with the inventory increase exceeding previous years and apparent demand dropping rapidly. [7] - Price Forecast: The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with limited downward space. Short - term steel prices may be under pressure due to news, but the impact of this tariff may be weaker than the "reciprocal tariff" in April. If the downstream demand in October recovers beyond expectations, the steel price may rise further. [7] - Trading Strategies - Single - side: Maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, and it is recommended to buy on dips. [8] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. [8] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see. [8] - Important Information - In October 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.24 million units, a 9.9% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. [8][10] - In September 2025, China exported 10.465 million tons of steel, a 10.0% month - on - month increase; from January to September, the cumulative steel export was 87.955 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year increase. In September, China imported 548,000 tons of steel, a 9.6% month - on - month increase; from January to September, the cumulative steel import was 4.532 million tons, a 12.6% year - on - year decrease. [10] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind. [14][16][18]
螺纹热卷日报-20251013
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-13 10:19