银河期货油脂日报-20251013

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider buying on dips. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price was 8268 with a decline of 34. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8488, 8588, and 8448 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 320, 220, and 180 respectively, with Tianjin's basis rising by 10. For palm oil, the 2601 closing price was 9364 with a decline of 74. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 9284, 9364, and 9484 respectively. The basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were - 80, 0, and 120 respectively. For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price was 10022 with a decline of 39. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10342. The basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong was 320, with increases of 30 and 20 respectively [3]. - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybean oil was 236 with a decline of 14; that of palm oil was 140 with a decline of 32; and that of rapeseed oil was 438 with a decline of 21 [3]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was - 1096 with an increase of 40; the OI - Y spread was 1754 with a decline of 5; the OI - P spread was 658 with an increase of 35; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.82 with a decline of 0.02 [3]. - Import Profits: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 182, with a CNF price of 1110.5 for the November shipment. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 815, with a FOB price of 1100 for the November shipment [3]. - Weekly Commercial Inventories: In the 39th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 124.9 million tons (last week: 123.6 million tons, same period last year: 115.6 million tons); that of palm oil was 55.2 million tons (last week: 58.5 million tons, same period last year: 50.6 million tons); and that of rapeseed oil was 58.3 million tons (last week: 58.6 million tons, same period last year: 41.0 million tons) [3]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - International Market: From October 1 - 10, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 6.02% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.11% month - on - month, and the output increased by 6.59% month - on - month [5]. - Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of September 26, 2025 (the 39th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 55.22 million tons, a decrease of 3.29 million tons (5.62%) from last week, at a moderately high level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation was stable with a slight decline, and the import profit inversion narrowed to around - 180. The basis was stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and one can consider lightly buying on significant dips. Later, pay attention to Indonesia's B50 policy progress and Malaysia's palm oil output in October [5]. - Domestic Market - Soybean Oil: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 114.28 million tons, with an operating rate of 37.04%, a decrease from the previous week, at a low level in the same period of history. As of October 10, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 126.51 million tons, an increase of 1.64 million tons (1.31%) from last week, at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The basis was stable. In the later period, as soybean arrivals decrease and soybean crushing declines from the high level, the soybean oil inventory may slightly decrease, but overall, the inventory is not in short supply. The spot market lacks highlights, with average trading volume and slow pick - up. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and one can consider buying on significant dips [6]. - Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 1.4 million tons, with an operating rate of 3.73%, a decrease from the previous week. As of September 26, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 58.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons (2.2%) from the previous week, still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory was continuously decreasing marginally. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil increased to around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil widened to around - 800. The market still had the sentiment of holding back sales at high prices, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with an increase. It is expected that the de - stocking trend in coastal areas will continue. The market expects a possible easing of China - Canada relations, causing rapeseed oil prices to decline. Currently, the domestic rapeseed oil fundamentals have not changed much, but overall, the marginal de - stocking of rapeseed oil supports the price. Continue to pay attention to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [9]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - Single - Side: It is expected that the oil and fat market will fluctuate in the short term, and one can consider buying on dips [11]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11]. - Options: Wait and see [11]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and East China's third - grade rapeseed oil; the 1 - 5 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil; and the 01 spreads of Y - P and OI - Y [14][17].