债券点评：波动到来，市场如何交易？

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed may cut interest rates by 25BP at the end of October due to the weak employment market and the dot - plot in September [1] - Short - term market uncertainty is rising due to tariff frictions and the ongoing US government shutdown, and the market pricing is relatively restrained [1] - In the short term, the US dollar is expected to remain in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the domestic bond market pricing of tariff news is also relatively restrained [1][2] - The subsequent market trading path may involve non - banks driving a small bond price increase, and then the market will continue to price based on two clues [3] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Overseas Market - Economic Data: The US ISM services PMI in September was weak, with the reading dropping from 52 to 50 and new orders falling from 56 to 50.4; the ADP report showed a decrease of 32,000 new jobs in September and a downward - revision of August data to - 3,000, but the initial jobless claims were stable [1] - Tariff Frictions: Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting from November 1st. The market pricing is less than that in April, with the VIX index rising 5 points to 21.7 on October 10th, the 10 - year US Treasury yield falling 9BP, and COMEX gold futures rising 0.63% [1] - Government Shutdown: As of October 13th, Polymarket estimated that the probability of the US government shutdown lasting 10 - 29 days is 34%, and over 67% expect it to exceed 30 days [1] - US Treasury Strategy: Short - term 10 - year US Treasury yields are expected to fluctuate around 4%. If the inflation data released on October 24th is strong, it may drive up the yield, and the term spread may face widening pressure [1] Exchange Rate - In the short term, due to unresolved political risks in France and Japan and market desensitization to tariff news, the US dollar is expected to remain in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern [2] Domestic Market - Bond Market: On the 11th, the interest rates of 5 - 10 - year bonds in the inter - bank bond market generally declined by 2 - 3BP, and the 30 - year ultra - long bond rate declined by 5BP. The active bonds of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds broke through key points [2] - Market Trading Path: Non - banks may drive a small bond price increase, with the interest rate decline approaching or slightly less than 7BP. Then the market will price based on the progress of monetary policy easing and the implementation details of the new public fund fee regulations [3]