Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to central bank dynamics. In the context of the tense Sino - US trade situation, the A - share market remained stable, and the bond market yield showed certain fluctuations. The market is in a TACO trading state. If the trade tension is short - term, it will not change the rhythm of monetary policy, and reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be postponed. The short - term market may remain in a volatile pattern. It is not advisable to chase high in operations, and long positions should wait for pullbacks to be established [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Performance - On Monday, bond futures opened higher across the board, with narrow fluctuations in the morning and a decline in the afternoon, resulting in a narrowing of gains. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 at around 1.31%. Open - market reverse repurchases were 13.78 billion yuan, with a net investment of 13.78 billion yuan [1] 3.2 Intra - day News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that China's export control of rare earths and other items is not a ban on exports, and hopes that the US will correct its mistakes and return to the right track of dialogue and negotiation. - Vance said that Trump is willing to have rational negotiations with China, and he had a conversation with Trump over the weekend. Trump "cherishes" friendship with China, and both hope not to use more bargaining chips against China [2] 3.3 Market Analysis - In the tense Sino - US trade situation, the A - share market opened above 3800 points and closed slightly lower, maintaining a range - bound pattern. Bond yields decreased compared to Friday but increased compared to Saturday. The market is in a TACO trading state. If the trade tension is short - term, it won't change the monetary policy rhythm, and reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be postponed. The short - term market may not break out of the volatile pattern. It's not advisable to chase high, and long positions should wait for pullbacks [3] 3.4 Contract Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 13 Price | 2025 - 10 - 10 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 10 - 13 Position (Hands) | 2025 - 10 - 10 Position (Hands) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.366 | 102.352 | 0.014 | 74436 | 74447 | - 11 | | TF2512 | 105.665 | 105.655 | 0.01 | 147179 | 145873 | 1306 | | T2512 | 108.05 | 107.96 | 0.09 | 252554 | 250716 | 1838 | | TL2512 | 114.37 | 114.02 | 0.35 | 172579 | 173374 | - 795 | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0017 | - 0.0385 | 0.0402 | | | | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.001 | - 0.058 | 0.059 | | | | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.082 | 0.031 | 0.051 | | | | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.3522 | 0.2355 | 0.1167 | | | | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 31658 | 30556 | 1102 | | | | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 60280 | 50839 | 9441 | | | | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 85927 | 68299 | 17628 | | | | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 124744 | 108237 | 16507 | | | | [4]
国债期货日报-20251013
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-13 10:51