Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the digestion of typhoon - related positive factors and a weak supply - demand structure under a weak macro - economic outlook [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract will face significant resistance in further rebounds due to the weak supply - demand fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to factors such as the US government shutdown, trade tariff wars, OPEC+ production increases, and the possible end of the Israel - Palestine conflict [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 million tons (1.01%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged, while the general trade inventory decreased by 1.18%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.50 percentage points. For general trade warehouses, the inbound rate increased by 1.98 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 3.11 percentage points [8]. - From October 3 - 9, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points from the previous period and 36.62 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points from the previous period and 0.78 percentage points year - on - year, mainly due to holiday shutdowns for maintenance [8]. - The logistics industry prosperity index in China in September 2025 was 51.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index of logistics enterprises was 53.3%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, remaining above 52% for four consecutive months [9]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a slight decrease of 1% from July and an increase of about 35% from the same period last year. The cumulative sales in the first eight months of 2025 reached 710,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.38%, a slight increase of 0.87% week - on - week, a slight decrease of 0.82% month - on - month, and a slight decrease of 1.39% compared to the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production was 2.033 billion tons, a significant increase of 160,300 tons week - on - week, 113,700 tons month - on - month, and 156,200 tons compared to the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.98%, a slight decrease of 0.43% week - on - week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.20%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week; the acetic acid operating rate was 81.65%, a slight increase of 5.03% week - on - week; the MTBE operating rate was 57.89%, a slight decrease of 0.46% week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 87.97%, a slight increase of 4.94 percentage points week - on - week and 8.42% month - on - month. The futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 146 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 14 yuan/ton week - on - week and 127 yuan/ton month - on - month [10]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.273 billion tons, a slight increase of 49,000 tons week - on - week, 57,000 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 369,900 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 320,000 tons, a slight decrease of 20,500 tons week - on - week, 13,500 tons month - on - month, and a significant decrease of 116,900 tons compared to the same period last year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 422, a slight decrease of 2 week - on - week and a decrease of 57 compared to the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, a significant increase of 124,000 barrels per day week - on - week and 429,000 barrels per day year - on - year [13]. - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) was 420.3 million barrels, a significant increase of 3.715 million barrels week - on - week and a slight decrease of 2.48 million barrels compared to the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.704 million barrels, a slight decrease of 763,000 barrels week - on - week; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 407 million barrels, a slight increase of 285,000 barrels week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was 92.4%, a slight increase of 1.0 percentage point week - on - week, a slight decrease of 2.5 percentage points month - on - month, and a slight increase of 5.7 percentage points year - on - year [13]. - Since October 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a downward trend. As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a significant increase of 4,249 contracts week - on - week but a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (15.65%) compared to the August average. As of October 10, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 141,656 contracts, a significant decrease of 60,824 contracts week - on - week and 74,699 contracts (34.53%) compared to the September average [14]. 2. Spot Price Table - For Shanghai rubber, the spot price was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the futures main contract price was 14,940 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan/ton from the previous day; the basis was - 340 yuan/ton, up 425 yuan/ton [16]. - For methanol, the spot price was 2,262 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the futures main contract price was 2,342 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous day; the basis was - 80 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [16]. - For crude oil, the spot price was 442.6 yuan/barrel, down 0.2 yuan/barrel from the previous day; the futures main contract price was 455.0 yuan/barrel, down 6.9 yuan/barrel from the previous day; the basis was - 12.4 yuan/barrel, up 6.7 yuan/barrel [16]. 3. Relevant Charts - The report provides relevant charts for rubber, including rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, etc.; for methanol and crude oil, relevant charts are also provided but specific details are mainly about the chart names [17][19][21]
橡胶甲醇原油：利空因素压制，能化偏弱运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-10-13 11:02