银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251013

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of laying hens remains at a high level, with the national inventory of laying hens in September reaching 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and higher than expected. The demand side is generally weak. Without significant improvement in the short term, egg prices are likely to remain weak. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Information - Today's average price in the main production areas is 2.7 yuan per catty, down 0.1 yuan from the previous trading day, while the average price in the main sales areas is 3.11 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous day. The number of remaining trucks in Dongguan parking lot and 1st parking lot is reported. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable with some declines, and the market is in an oscillatory adjustment phase [6]. - In August, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase, higher than expected. The monthly hatch volume of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease and a 14% year - on - year decrease. Without considering delayed or concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from October 2025 to January 2026 is 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7]. - From October 2nd to the week, the national culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 20.12 million, a 3% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of laying hens was 500 days, 2 days more than the previous week [7]. - As of the week of October 9th, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,179 tons, a 5.8% decrease from the previous week [8]. - As of the week of October 9th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.5 days, an increase of 0.24 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.34 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous week [8]. - As of October 2nd, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.4 yuan, a decrease of 0.3 yuan from the previous week. On October 3rd, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 3.3 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.06 yuan per catty from the previous week [8]. - Today, the national price of culled hens has dropped, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.29 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.07 yuan from the previous trading day [9]. 3.2 Trading Logic The supply of laying hens remains high, and the demand is generally weak. Without significant short - term improvement, egg prices are likely to remain weak, and near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly [10]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [11]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [12].